Airbus Sees Demand for 25,000 Jetliners Over 20 Years (Update2)

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Airbus SAS, the world’s largest maker of commercial aircraft, said airlines will buy 25,000 planes worth $3.1 trillion over the next 20 years, buoyed by Asian sales and increased demand for single-aisle models.

The forecast is 3 percent higher than the 24,300-aircraft requirement predicted by Toulouse, France-based Airbus in February 2008. The new prediction contrasts with a 1.4 percent cut in Boeing Co.’s latest 20-year forecast, issued June 11.

While the airline industry may lose $11 billion in 2009, according to the International Air Transport Association, Airbus Chief Operating Officer John Leahy said there has been no surge in cancellations and that the company is still hopeful of achieving its target of about 300 orders this year.

“A lot of people have talked about massive cancellations in the recession, but that’s not really true,” Leahy said at a London press briefing. “We really don’t see a lot of cancellations. The airlines tend to take the aircraft even if they have to reschedule them.”

Airbus predicts 4.6 percent growth in passenger traffic in 2010, rebounding from a 2 percent decline this year.

Traffic is likely to grow by 4.7 percent a year on average, doubling the total within 15 years, Airbus said, also bolstered by demand for more fuel-efficient planes to replace older models and the growth of cities worldwide.

The Asia-Pacific region will account for 31 percent of new aircraft, led by carriers in China and India, the manufacturer predicted, with Europe contributing 25 percent of sales and North America 23 percent.

‘Lion’s Share’

“We think we’re relatively well positioned to take the lion’s share of the market,” said Leahy, also head of sales at Airbus, a unit of European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co.

Airbus’s prediction that travel will recover next year is more optimistic than at Boeing, the world’s second-biggest commercial planemaker, which forecasts traffic will fall as much 8 percent this year and won’t rebound until 2011.

Boeing sees an industrywide market for 29,000 new planes worth $3.2 trillion over the next two decades, according to the June update, 400 fewer than it anticipated a year earlier.

Airbus raised its estimate for single- aisle deliveries by 2.4 percent, forecasting that almost 17,000 narrowbody aircraft valued at $1.2 trillion are needed, with demand spurred by the growth of discount airlines and increasing route liberalization.

“Low-cost carriers are a phenomenon that’s very important” and are “much less damaged by this recession,” Leahy said.

Superjumbo Market

Airbus sees demand for 6,250 widebody planes and 1,700 so-called very large aircraft, such as the A380 superjumbo. The company predicts that more than half of aircraft in the latter category will operate in the Asia-Pacific. Chicago- based Boeing sees less need for very large planes and suggests that a greater number of smaller aircraft will be required.

Airbus predicted today that there will be a market for 850 new-build freighter planes over the next 20 years, 50 fewer than in its previous forecast. Leahy said the cargo market is “probably the worst” he has ever seen.

To contact the reporter on this story: Steve Rothwell in London at srothwell@bloomberg.net