By Bill Murray
May 19 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rebounded from a three-month low on expectations rising gasoline demand in the U.S. will stretch supplies as drivers take to the roads this summer.
U.S. gasoline supplies increased last week as refineries returned to full production after seasonal maintenance. A record 37.2 million Americans will take trips during the U.S. Memorial Day weekend in late May, an increase of more than 2 percent from last year, said AAA, the largest U.S. travel organization.
``Everyone is waiting for increased gasoline demand to hit next month,'' said Simon Wardell, an analyst with Global Insight Inc. in London. ``That should start to see a few dents made in the gasoline stocks. Most people would expect that a decline in petrol stocks would lead to a decline in crude stocks.''
Crude for June delivery rose 22 cents to $47.47 at 11:55 a.m. London time after falling to $46.88 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest intra-day price since Feb. 14. London's Brent contract for July rose 12 cents to $48.27 a barrel.
Oil has fallen 19 percent since reaching a record $58.28 a barrel April 4. Prices are up 13 percent from a year ago.
Yesterday, oil fell $1.72, or 3.5 percent, to $47.25 a barrel after the Energy Department said crude stockpiles grew more than expected.
Growing Supplies
U.S. crude supplies rose 4.3 million barrels to 334 million last week and are now 25.1 million barrels, or 8.1 percent, above the five-year average for the week, the Energy Department said. The gain was four times more than expected and gave the U.S. its biggest stockpiles of crude since June 1999.
Gasoline supplies rose 1.1 million barrels to 214.8 million last week, the report said. Refineries operated at 94 percent of capacity last week, up 2.2 percentage points from a week before.
``I was surprised by the scale of the build-up,'' said Dariusz Kowalczyk, an investment strategist at CFC Securities in Honk Kong. Gasoline ``production was the highest since early December, but its increase merely balanced lower imports. It was slower demand that caused inventory growth to be much higher than expected.''
Gasoline demand fell last month, according to a report by the American Petroleum Institute. Nine million barrels a day were consumed, a 0.6 percent decline from a year earlier, the monthly report by the industry-funded group showed.
``We had close to record import levels last week and refining runs are up,'' said Christopher Bellew, a broker with Bache Securities Ltd. in London. ``The whole market seems fairly well-supplied.''
Imports surged 8.7 percent to an average 10.9 million barrels a day. Imports have averaged 10.2 million barrels a day so far this year, up 4.9 percent from the same period in 2004.
Gasoline for June delivery rose 0.56 cent, or 0.4 percent, to $1.42 a gallon in New York.
Demand Peaks
World oil demand peaks in the fourth quarter, when refiners build up stockpiles of heating fuel for the northern hemisphere winter. Concern refiners won't be able to meet that demand means late-year oil contracts have cost more than contracts for the nearest month since mid-March. Oil for December delivery costs $3.90 a barrel more than oil for June delivery.
Global oil demand will grow 2.2 percent in 2005 to 84.3 million barrels a day, the International Energy Agency said May 11. It maintained a fourth-quarter forecast of 86.1 million barrels and cut its forecast for the need for OPEC crude, or the call on OPEC, by 100,000 barrels, to 29.2 million barrels a day.
Increased production from non-OPEC producers, rising stockpiles and an increase in OPEC's spare capacity will reduce the effect on winter prices, the Paris-based agency said.
OPEC pumped 30 million barrels a day in April, Bloomberg data show. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's main producer and the world's largest oil exporter, won't reduce supplies even as stockpiles grow and prices fall, Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said May 17.
Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, plans to build new rail lines to boost shipments to China to as much as 70 million tons by 2007, OAO Russian Railways said May 17. Russia increased shipments to China by 53 percent to 2.3 million tons in the first quarter, all of it by rail.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Murray in London at wmurray1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 19, 2005 07:24 EDT
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