By Shobhana Chandra
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in February, reflecting a jump in purchases of imported automobiles that overwhelmed record exports.
Additional government figures showed the number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits rose to 2.94 million in the week ended March 29, the most in almost four years. The trade gap grew 5.7 percent to $62.3 billion, the highest since November, the Commerce Department said in Washington.
The surge in imports will probably reverse as economists surveyed by Bloomberg News anticipate consumer spending will grow in the first half of the year at the weakest pace since 1991. A drop in the dollar, by making American-made goods cheaper to foreign buyers, will continue to lift exports.
``The increase in imports will not hold up,'' said Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, who used to work at the Federal Reserve. ``Growth is so weak we are not going to be buying as much. We'll see the trade deficit improving.''
Economists expected the trade gap to narrow to $57.5 billion from an initially reported $58.2 billion in January, according to the median of 74 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The January deficit was revised to $59 billion.
The dollar, which fell earlier today, reversed losses against the euro and was little changed against the yen. It rose 0.6 percent from late yesterday to 1.5741 per euro at 4:20 p.m. in New York, and was worth 101.92 yen.
Autos, Machinery
The gain in imports was led by cars and industrial machinery, which spurred a jump in inventories in February that Commerce reported yesterday. As consumers rein in spending, the overhang of unsold items will hurt orders for new goods, damaging economic growth in subsequent months.
``Importers may have over-estimated consumer demand,'' David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. ``Inventories, some imported, are rising rapidly. That will signal domestic producers and importers will cut back.''
Initial claims dropped more than forecast last week, to 357,000, the Labor Department's report today also showed.
Imports rose to a record $213.7 billion in February as Americans bought more foreign-made autos, industrial machines, and pharmaceuticals. The latter category is often volatile and economists tend to play down month-to-month changes.
Import Forecast
``I would still maintain that Americans will be buying fewer goods from overseas,'' Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio.
Honda Motor Co., Japan's second-largest automaker, boosted its U.S. market share to 9.9 percent in the first quarter from 9.1 percent a year ago, the biggest improvement among all automakers. The gain was helped in part by a 0.7 percent increase in its sales of imported autos, mainly the Fit subcompact and CR-V compact sport-utility vehicle.
Nissan Motor Co., which increased U.S. market share 0.3 point to 7.5 percent in the first three months of the year, imported 23.2 percent more vehicles in the quarter.
The petroleum deficit shrank to $32.5 billion, the first decline in eight months. A drop in the quantity imported offset a record price of $84.76 a barrel.
Deficit with China
Americans also bought fewer goods from China. The politically sensitive gap with the Asian nation shrank to $18.4 billion, the lowest since March 2007, as imports dropped 7.8 percent.
American exports increased 2 percent to $151.4 billion, boosted by sales of fuel oil, autos, food oils and corn.
General Dynamics Corp., the second-largest maker of business aircraft through its Gulfstream unit, said last month it will build the world's fastest civil jet as it seeks a greater share of sales in Europe, Asia and Latin America.
Gulfstream's total backlog of orders jumped 59 percent to a record $12.3 billion last year. Sales rose 17 percent to $4.8 billion in 2007, and for the first time overseas orders surpassed U.S. bookings.
The U.S. economy will not expand at all in the first six months of 2008 as consumer spending cools, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from April 2 to April 8. A majority now projects the U.S. is, or will soon be, in a recession.
Consumer spending, making up more than two-thirds of the economy, will rise at an average annual pace of 0.5 percent in the first half, the worst performance since 1991, the survey showed.
IMF Forecast
The International Monetary Fund this week projected the U.S. will tip into ``a mild recession'' this year. At the same time, economies in Asia will remain ``robust'' and the fallout from a U.S. slowdown may be less severe than during previous downturns, the IMF said. That signals American exports may keep growing.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who on April 2 conceded for the first time that the economic expansion may end, told lawmakers that businesses are benefiting from growing demand overseas.
``Net exports should continue to provide considerable support to U.S. economic activity in coming quarters,'' Bernanke said last week.
A lower dollar is helping. The currency was down 10 percent against a trade-weighted basket of currencies from the U.S.' biggest trading partners in the 12 months ended in February.
February exports to the European Union were a record $23.8 billion, led by growing demand from Germany, Poland and the Netherlands. Sales to Japan also jumped 9.8 percent. The trade gap with Canada and Mexico widened.
To contact the reporters on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: April 10, 2008 16:21 EDT
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