Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. crude oil futures for near- term delivery will probably fall relative to later months as an economic slowdown erases a premium created by summer storms, Dresdner Kleinwort Group Ltd. and Schork Report analysts said.

Refiners and other oil consumers are unlikely to keep paying more for immediate crude supplies as failing U.S. banks and securities firms heighten the possibility of recession and diminished energy demand.

The October crude contract, the closest to delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange, has so far this week traded at a premium to November, since Hurricane Ike struck the Texas coast five days ago.

``Physical shortages within the U.S. domestic market may be pushing up crude for prompt delivery compared with the back of the curve,'' said Gareth Lewis-Davies, a research analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort. ``As the shut-ins in the Gulf are likely to be short-lived, that imbalance will subside.''

U.S. energy producers idled about 96 percent of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricanes Ike and Gustav moved through the region, the U.S. government said yesterday.

Oil nonetheless fell $10 a barrel during the first two trading sessions of this week, its biggest two-day decline in almost four years, as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch & Co. was sold to Bank of America Corp.

Brent Crude

October crude, which will expire on Sept. 22, traded at $93.75 a barrel as of 12:55 p.m. in New York, 31 cents higher than the November contract, and 19 cents above December crude.

The premium may vanish as Gulf output returns and demand for crude eases, causing the structure of the U.S. crude market to more closely resemble that of North Sea Brent crude futures traded in London, where later contracts are more expensive than earlier ones -- a market condition called contango.

`Given the poor outlook for the global economy I would expect a steeper contango'' once the ``short-term squeeze'' from the hurricanes abates, according to Stephen Schork, author of the Schork Report. ``The market is no longer pricing in risk with regard to future supply. That can only mean the market is gambling on even a greater loss of demand in the months ahead.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 17, 2008 13:11 EDT