Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Analysts trying to forecast U.S. earnings missed the mark by the biggest margin in at least 16 years last quarter as bank credit losses topped $500 billion and oil surged to records, according to Bloomberg data.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows analysts correctly predicted results for 6.7 percent of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index that released second-quarter earnings, the fewest since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 1992.

``We're at an inflection point in many parts of the economy,'' said John Kattar, the Boston-based chief investment officer at Eastern Investment Advisors, which manages about $2 billion. ``No one really knows how it's going to end and that makes it very difficult to make predictions.''

Analysts have been increasingly wrong as rising subprime-mortgage losses and record oil sent bank and retailer earnings down faster than forecast. The decline also coincides with the adoption in October 2000 of Regulation Fair Disclosure, which barred companies from giving material information first to select analysts.

At the start of the year, profits at banks, brokers and insurance companies were projected to rise 22 percent in 2008, according to the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. They're now expected to decline 48 percent. Analysts forecast an 11 percent gain in retailer earnings when 2008 began, compared with an 11 percent drop now, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 20, 2008 13:09 EDT