By William Pesek Jr.
Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Suddenly, the events of the last year in Asia seem trivial. The fast-rising death toll from the weekend's earthquake and tsunamis eclipses everything else.
The disaster, which has claimed at least 50,000 lives and perhaps far more, highlighted the region's vulnerability to the whims of nature. And lessons can be learned all around.
Governments received a grim wakeup call for the need to upgrade warning systems that proved woefully inadequate in the face of a magnitude 9.0 quake and subsequent tsunamis. For investors, it was a reminder of how quickly exogenous events can shake an otherwise improving economic outlook.
Yet even without the tragedy, 2004 has been a year to remember for many reasons; it's also been one many would just as soon forget. Be it the increasingly bizarre events in North Korea, China's boom, war in Iraq or Japan's recovery, 2004 is a year worth talking about.
As a memorable year draws to a close, some awards seem in order for the Asian countries, companies and people that, for better or worse, mattered most in 2004. Drum roll, please.
-- Wile E. Coyote Award: To China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corp., which disclosed $550 million of derivatives-trading losses. One moment the high-flying foreign unit of a Beijing champion; the next it plunged to earth as investors learned executives were hiding the losses.
The question is whether it's that seminal event that prompts a reassessment of an entire economy and its companies, just as Enron's collapse was for the U.S.
-- Both Sides of the Mouth Award: To Philippine President Gloria Arroyo, who recently called on Asia to ``slay the deficit dragon'' in order to woo investors. Trouble is, she's done little to avoid an Argentina-like debt crisis in her own economy.
-- Make Traders Weep Award: To China, which confounded speculation it would alter its nine-year-old currency peg to the U.S. dollar. Traders betting on a revaluation regretted it -- much as they did in 2003. Instead, Asia's No. 2 economy basked in positive headlines, like ones generated by Lenovo Group Ltd.'s purchase of International Business Machines Corp.'s personal computer business.
-- Get Out the Vote Award: To Indonesia, which this year installed its first directly elected president, former General Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. That Indonesia got nearly 80 percent of its 235 million to vote -- and do so peacefully and fairly -- impressed investors.
Indonesia, still with crushing problems like high debt levels and poverty, deserves kudos for picking a leader who pledged to tackle corruption, attract investors and create jobs. If U.S. celebrities like Sean ``P. Diddy'' Combs want to get their guy elected in 2008, they should visit Jakarta to see how it's done.
-- See Ya Mate Award: To Rupert Murdoch, who ditched Australia for the more capitalized pastures of the U.S. The News Corp. titan bolted Adelaide for the state of Delaware, figuring it'd be easier to raise money and attract investors in the U.S. where News Corp. generates more than 75 percent of its revenue.
-- Daiei Another Day Award: To Daiei Inc., who else? Japan's third-largest retailer and epitome of the zombie company sought its third bailout in three years after many of its investments in convenience stores, hotels, restaurants, credit cards, baseball and Hawaiian shopping malls soured. That Daiei is still around -- living handout to handout -- shows Japan's corporate restructuring is a work in progress.
-- Wallflower No More Award: To India, which in 2004 stepped out of China's shadow, and for good reason. Investors are realizing that India's challenges, formidable as they are, are being eased by 7 percent growth, a young population and a growing entrepreneurial spirit.
-- ``It Thing'' Award: To South Korea, which, for all its challenges, benefited from its celebrities. Actors like Bae Yong Joon and singers like BoA are taking Asia by storm and created a lucrative industry for cultural exports. The economic knock-off effects of what Asians call the ``Korean Wave'' continue to multiply and offer a ray of sunshine for Asia's No. 3 economy.
-- What a Difference a Year Makes Award: To Malaysia, where Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi used his first 14 months to shore up the economy and mend fences. Gone is his predecessor Mahathir Mohamad's penchant for roiling markets and unnerving some neighbors; he's a leader who wants Malaysia to attract more investment and perhaps even become a truly Asian leader.
-- We Hold the Mortgage Award: To Asian central banks, which reminded Washington that while the U.S. has built a massive and productive economy, they hold the deed. The U.S. would be in huge trouble if Asia sold its vast holdings -- well over $1 trillion -- of Treasuries. If the U.S. doesn't address its growing budget and current-account deficits, Asians may indeed pull the plug in 2005.
To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek Jr. in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 28, 2004 20:51 EST
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