Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry took the lead over President George W. Bush after this week's debate, polls by Newsweek magazine and the Los Angeles Times showed.

Kerry, a four-term senator from Massachusetts, led with 49 percent backing to 46 percent for Bush in the Newsweek poll of 1,013 registered voters conducted the past two days. In the Los Angeles Times poll, Kerry was supported by 49 percent of the 725 registered voters who watched, listened, or read about Thursday's presidential debate, and Bush was backed by 47 percent.

Bush led by as much as 8 percentage points going into the debate, according to four national polls. Iraq dominated the forum between Bush and Kerry, who called Bush's decision to invade the country a ``colossal'' mistake because the president didn't have enough global support for the war. Bush countered that Kerry is sending ``mixed signals'' to the troops and enemies by criticizing the use of force after he voted to authorize the attack.

``There are a lot of polls out right now, but given that there are only 30 days to go to the election, we prefer our candidate's record and message'' to Kerry's, said Reed Dickens, a spokesman for the Bush campaign.

The Newsweek poll also included the views of 770 respondents who watched the Sept. 30 debate at the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Florida. Of these, 61 percent said Kerry did better and 19 percent backed Bush. Three instant surveys the night of the debate and one focus group also concluded Kerry performed better than Bush.

`Up and Down'

``Polls go up and down,'' said Kerry campaign spokesman David Wade. ``What's most important is that in a debate that George Bush demanded, John Kerry proved to America he would be a more efficient commander in chief.''

The lead shifted between Kerry and Bush several times this year, according to the results provided by Newsweek. Of registered voters interviewed for the magazine's poll on Sept. 9 and 10, 49 percent favored Bush, 43 percent Kerry and 2 percent Nader.

In a three-way race that includes independent candidate Ralph Nader, the new poll shows Kerry with 47 percent support, compared with Bush's 45 percent and Nader's 2 percent.

The telephone survey, conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates for Newsweek, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The results of the Los Angeles Times poll from the Sept. 30-Oct. 1 poll were also within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. A previous Los Angeles Times survey taken Sept. 25- 28 of 1,531 registered voters found 49 percent supported Bush, while 45 favored Kerry.

Instant polls by the Gallup Organization, ABC News and CBS News immediately after Thursday night's debate found Kerry ahead by as much as 16 percentage points on the question of who won the encounter. Five of the 18 voters in the focus group by Republican pollster Frank Luntz said they moved from undecided to supporting Kerry, Luntz said in a press release. None switched to Bush.

Debate

Kerry put Bush on the defensive from the start of the debate by accusing Bush of rushing into war in Iraq without the backing of the United Nations and for not being adequately prepared to manage the country after major combat operations ended.

Bush countered by saying Kerry ``was sending mixed signals to our troops'' by criticizing the war after voting to authorize use of force in Iraq.

The day after the debate, Bush returned to the debate topics to criticize Kerry for his ``pattern of confusing contradictions'' over Iraq. ``He has no plan to win in Iraq,'' Bush told a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania. ``The cornerstone of Senator Kerry's plan is to convene a summit. I've been to a lot of summits, and I've never seen a meeting that would depose a tyrant.''

Kerry shifted his focus after the debate to attack Bush's stewardship of the economy as he prepares for the next debate Oct. 8 in St. Louis.

Kerry said Bush's tax cuts shortchanged programs to protect the U.S. from terrorist attacks. ``He says I don't know how you're going to pay for all that,'' Kerry told a rally in Tampa, Florida yesterday. ``This is from a president who created a tax gap by providing tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans instead of investing in homeland security.''

Before and After

Bush futures traded on Intrade.com, a Dublin-based market that opened in 2001, fell to 62 at 1:14 a.m. in Dublin from 67 the day before the debate. The futures prices represent the odds bettors give Bush for winning the election. Kerry futures rose from 36 to 40.5, meaning futures buyers give him a 40.5 percent chance of winning the election. Winning contracts climb to 100 and yield $10 after the election, losing contracts expire worthless.

Kerry last led the Newsweek poll in a survey done July 29 and 30. That survey of 1,010 registered voters found Kerry and led Bush 52 percent to 44 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Kerry lost his lead after the Republican National Convention in New York at the end of August.

At this point in the 2000 race, Gore held a lead over Bush in polls taken by Newsweek and Bloomberg News. Bush took the lead after that year's debates. A review of state-by-state polls and historical voting data by Bloomberg News shows Bush ahead in 22 states, including Texas and Florida, with 205 electoral votes.

Electoral Count

Kerry leads in 10 states, including New York and Maryland, with 143 electoral votes. In 18 states that have 190 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania and Ohio, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error.

Bush leads by 9 percentage points in Florida, according to a Gallup poll conducted Sept. 24-27 for Cable News Network and USA Today. Bush was the choice of 52 percent of 704 voters deemed likely to vote and Kerry was backed by 43 percent. The poll's margin of error was 4 percentage points. Bush and Kerry were in a statistical tie a week ago.

In Pennsylvania, Bush leads 49 percent to 46 percent among 654 likely voters polled Sept. 25-28 by Gallup. Among 799 registered voters, Kerry has 49 percent to 45 percent for Bush, within the margin for error. Nader garnered 1 percent of the vote in both Florida and Pennsylvania.

Ohio

Bush's lead in Ohio has narrowed to 2 percentage points, according to a Gallup poll conducted Sept. 25-28. He's supported by 50 percent of 633 likely voters and 48 percent back Kerry. The survey has a 4 percentage-point error margin. Bush led by 8 percentage points in Ohio three weeks ago.

Both campaigns have identified Ohio and its 20 electoral votes as key to the election. No Republican has ever been elected without carrying the state.

On a campaign swing through Ohio today, Bush's 27th trip to the state, the president criticized Kerry's performance during the debate, saying Kerry's comment that a ``global test'' should be used before the U.S. goes to war amounted to a ``Kerry Doctrine.''

Such a doctrine, Bush said, ``would give foreign governments veto power over national security decisions.'' The campaign also launched a new television advertisement featuring that Kerry line from the debate.

Global Test

The ``Global Test' ad distorts what Kerry said in the debate, his campaign said. Kerry's campaign created a new advertisement to counter Bush's claims. ``George Bush lost the debate, the television ad begins. ``Now he's lying about it. This is what you heard John Kerry really say: `The president always has the right for pre-emptive strike. I will hunt and kill the terrorists, wherever they are.'''

Kerry's lead in New Jersey, which no Republican presidential candidate has won since 1988, is also within the margin of error, according to Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. Kerry is supported by 43 percent of 489 likely voters surveyed Sept. 23-28, while 41 percent support Bush. Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie said yesterday that the party will spend more time and money in the state to try and win its 14 electoral votes.

In Michigan, Bush and Kerry are in a statistical tie according to a Sept. 22-28 Detroit Free Press poll of 830 registered voters. Kerry is backed by 48 percent while 46 support Bush. The poll has a 3.5 percent margin of error. Kerry held at least a four-point lead in previous surveys, the Free Press said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kerry Dooley in Washington kdooley@bloomberg.net or William McQuillen in Washington at bmcquillen@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 2, 2004 23:17 EDT