Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Aluminum, used to make beverage cans and car components, will rise in price next year as demand increases and production growth is braked by limited availability of alumina, Societe Generale forecast.

Aluminum will average $1,820 a metric ton in 2005 compared with $1,715 this year, London-based analyst Stephen Briggs said in an e-mailed report. Consumption will grow 5.4 percent in 2005 to 31.4 million tons.

Output will rise 5.4 percent this year and then 4.2 percent in 2005 to 30.8 million tons. ``The real structural constraint is alumina,'' Briggs said.

Two tons of alumina, a white powder-like substance, is needed to smelt one ton of aluminium. Alumina prices have risen in 2004 to their highest in at least 10 years. Alcoa Inc. and Alcan Inc, the world's largest and second-largest aluminium smelters, are among companies considering boosting output by building alumina refineries.

Pittsburgh-based Alcoa and Montreal-based Alcan may build a 1.5 million-ton refinery in Guinea, West Africa. Rio Tinto Group, the world's third-largest mining company, will begin production in 2005 at its Gladstone refinery in Australia, the first new refinery to be built since 2001.

Spot prices for alumina reached $480 a ton in April, according to London-based publication Metal bulletin, 88 percent higher than year earlier. Alumina is now trading at $405.

Aluminum for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange fell $10, or 0.5 percent, to $1,837 a ton at 9:56 a.m. London time. It has advanced 15 percent this year, and closed at a nine-year high of $1,879.5 on Oct. 8.

Copper prices will average $2,610 in 2005 compared with $2,875 this year, SocGen forecast. Copper was down $18, or 0.6 percent, to $3,095 a ton on the LME.

Consumption of copper, used in power cables and plumbing, will rise 5.7 percent to 17.7 million tons, while production will rise 11 percent to 17.6 million tons. The deficit between demand and production will drop from 850,000 tons this year to 100,000 tons in 2005.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Casey in London at scasey4@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 30, 2004 05:39 EST