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Saudi Arabia, U.A.E. Say OPEC Should Increase Production

By Maher Chmaytelli and Jim Efstathiou Jr.

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should raise output quotas for the sixth time in 15 months as oil and gasoline prices stay near record highs, the ministers for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said.

The Saudi oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, told reporters in Vienna today that his nation ``absolutely'' supports an increase. His counterpart from the United Arab Emirates, Mohammed bin Dhaen al- Hamli, said such a decision may ``calm'' world oil markets, the state-run WAM news agency reported.

Oil prices more than doubled in the past two years and reached a record $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30 after Hurricane Katrina sank rigs and shut refineries along the Gulf of Mexico. More crude oil may fail to lower prices until refineries can make more gasoline, said Jeffrey Currie, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. U.S. gasoline this month reached a record $3 a gallon, on average.

``We are doing what is necessary to deliver the crude and the products,'' al-Naimi said to reporters.

Delta Air Lines Inc., based in Atlanta, and St. Paul, Minnesota-based Northwest Airlines Corp. filed for bankruptcy this week, partly because of soaring fuel costs, leaving four of the seven largest U.S. airlines operating under court protection.

Al-Naimi said signs that surging prices are slowing demand may prove to be temporary, and he is not yet convinced that the cost of oil is hurting consumption.

``We see it today, but does that mean it's going to be for the next three months?'' al-Naimi said.

IEA Stockpiles

OPEC meets Sept. 19 and 20 to deliberate an increase in the Official output ceiling, now at 28 million barrels a day for the members outside of Iraq.

``Should crude prices remain at their current levels or rise, the upcoming ministerial meeting might decide to increase production by an adequate amount in order to calm world oil markets,'' al-Hamli said, WAM reported today.

Outside OPEC, consuming nations in the International Energy Agency this month organized their second release of emergency stockpiles in the group's existence.

An increase of 500,000 barrels would boost OPEC's formal production quota to 28.5 million a day. The IEA estimates spare capacity outside of Iraq at 1.39 million barrels a day, with about two-thirds of the total, or 940,000 barrels, in Saudi Arabia, and another 130,000 barrels left unused in Iran. Bonga, a Nigerian field planned to pump 220,000 barrels a day, is slated to come on stream in the fourth quarter.

The Saudi minister said he doesn't see more demand for his crude oil. The nation is now pumping about 9.5 million barrels a day.

``We have offered up to 11 million barrels, but we have had no response whatsoever,'' al-Naimi said. There is ``absolutely not'' demand for more oil from Saudi Arabia.

Gulf of Mexico

Merrill Lynch & Co.'s senior energy strategist, Francisco Blanch, expects oil to average $65.50 next year because Hurricane Katrina ``has acted as a true supply shock to global energy markets.'' Forecasts range as high as Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce's chief economist, Jeffrey Rubin, who predicts an average $84.

Crude may rise next week on concern that output in the Gulf of Mexico will take longer than estimated to restore, according to 22 of 56 analysts and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg. Twenty said prices may decline and 14 forecast little changed.

OPEC this week lowered its forecast for growth in oil demand for a fifth month, saying consumption in 2005 will grow by 1.42 million barrels a day, or 1.7 percent, to 83.49 million. That's 160,000 barrels a day less than OPEC estimated last month. Next year, demand will grow by 1.52 million barrels a day, 100,000 barrels less than previously forecast, OPEC said.

OPEC has increased production for seven straight months, pumping 30.38 million barrels of crude a day in August, according to Bloomberg estimates, disregarding the quotas. That was the highest output since October, when members pumped 30.5 million barrels a day, the most since 1979.

OPEC's official quotas apply to all members except Iraq, and those 10 produced 28.55 million barrels a day last month. Three of the last five quota increases were 500,000-barrel increments.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Voss in London at sev@bloomberg.net James Cordahi in Dubai on cherifcord@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 17, 2005 09:46 EDT