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U.S. Wheat Crop May Be Biggest in Three Years, Analysts Say

By Jeff Wilson

Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. farmers probably harvested the biggest wheat crop in three years, little changed from the government's month-ago estimate, a Bloomberg survey showed.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture later this week will estimate production at 2.119 billion bushels, compared with 2.114 billion bushels predicted in August and up 17 percent from last year's drought-reduced crop, according to the average of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. A May estimate of 2.174 billion bushels had been cut after excessive rain in the Great Plains.

The price of wheat has more than doubled in the past 12 months on expectations for declining world supplies. Wheat futures for December delivery rose 9.5 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $8.8725 a bushel yesterday on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price touched $9.05 in intraday trading, the highest since reaching a record $9.1125 on Sept. 12.

``USDA made some extra surveys during the summer when we had the floods in Oklahoma and Kansas to double-check some things,'' said Bill Nelson, a vice president at A.G. Edwards Inc. in St. Louis. ``The spring-wheat harvest came along pretty well. One might have worried had there been some harvest problems in August, but I can't think of anything that happened like that.''

The USDA is scheduled to release its crop production estimate on Sept. 28 at 8:30 a.m. in Washington, before futures trading begins. The estimate is based partly on field measurements and on surveys of farmers.

Wheat Inventory

The USDA may peg the country's wheat inventory as of Sept. 1 at 1.839 billion bushels, up 5 percent from 1.751 billion a year earlier and the largest in two years, according to the average estimate of 11 analysts.

The department will estimate the corn surplus on Sept. 1 at 1.146 billion bushels, the analysts said. That would be the smallest in three years and down 42 percent from a year earlier, when supplies were the highest since 1988. The USDA on Sept. 12 said that reserves on Aug. 31, before the harvest, were 1.142 billion bushels.

The USDA is expected to estimate Sept. 1 soybean inventories at 552 million bushels, which would be up 23 percent from 449 million a year earlier and the largest ever for Sept. 1. The department's Sept. 12 estimate was for 555 million bushels.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 1.75 cents, or 0.5 percent, to close at $3.7175 a bushel yesterday in Chicago after earlier rising to $3.755. Futures have risen 46 percent in the past year, reaching a 10-year high of $4.5025 on Feb. 26 on record demand for ethanol made from the grain.

Soybeans for November delivery fell 5.75 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $9.73 a bushel. The price earlier climbed to $9.8275. Futures, which have risen 79 percent in the past 12 months, reached a three-year high of $9.9675 on Sept. 20 as hot, dry weather threatened U.S. crops.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued last year at a record $33.8 billion, followed by soybeans at $19.7 billion. Wheat was in fourth place, behind hay, with a value of $7.7 billion.



                  2007 Wheat Production Estimates
                      (in millions of bushels)

                         All Wheat Winter Wheat   Spring Wheat
2006 Production          1,812          1,298          460
August 2007              2,114          1,537          500
---------------------------------------------------------------
Sept. Estimates, by Firm
A.G. Edwards Inc.        2,114          n/a            n/a
Allendale Inc.           2,123          1,537          483
Citigroup Global Mkts.   2,121          1,533          510
Fimat USA                2,107          1,530          500
Kropf & Love             2,110          n/a            n/a
Iowa Grain               2,121          n/a            482
Midwest Market
N. American Risk Mgmt.   2,128          1,543          507
R.J. O'Brien             2,131          1,534          519
---------------------------------------------------------------

Average                  2,119          1,534          500
Range              2,107-2,131     1,530-1,543      482-519


                 Quarterly Grain Inventories, Sept. 1 2007
                     (in billions of bushels)

                         Corn           Soybeans       Wheat
USDA June 2007          3.534          1.091          0.456
USDA Sept. 2006         1.967          0.449          1.751
---------------------------------------------------------------
Sept. 2007 Estimates, by Firm
ADM Investor Srvs.       1.140          0.555          1.785
A.G. Edwards Inc.        1.166          0.545          1.784
Allendale Inc.           1.095          0.555          1,850
Brugler Marketing        1.152          0.541          n/a
Citigroup Global Mkts.   1.134          0.552          1.846
Fortis Clearing          1.167          0.547          1.925
Fimat USA                1.130          0.553          1,785
Iowa Grain               1.120          0.565          1,843
Kropf & Love             1.127          0.557          1.900
N. American Risk Mgmt.   1.177          0.550          1.844
Prudential Securities    1.175          0.557          1.806
R.J. O'Brien             1.163          0.543          1.865
U.S. Commodities         1.153          0.558          n/a

---------------------------------------------------------------
Average                  1.146          0.552          1.839
Range               1.095-1.177     0.541-0.565    1.9-1.784

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at jwilson29@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 26, 2007 08:11 EDT

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