June 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers added 248,000 workers to payrolls in May, more than forecast, helped by the biggest gain in manufacturing employment in almost six years. The economy has now recouped all the jobs lost since the recession ended in November 2001. The unemployment rate held at 5.6 percent.

The increase follows revised gains of 346,000 jobs in April and 353,000 in March that were larger than estimated last month, the Labor Department said in Washington. Manufacturing employment rose the most since August 1998 and hours worked at factories were the highest since October 2000. Service and construction employment rose.

``Business confidence is pretty high given the amount of hiring we are seeing,'' said Henry Willmore, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. ``Businesses feel the improvement in sales is enduring enough to justify hiring.'' Willmore had forecast a 250,000 gain in payrolls.

Rising wages will keep consumers spending and ensure the economy continues to expand for the rest of the year, economists said. Last month's gain underscores expectations Federal Reserve policy makers will raise the benchmark interest rate target by a quarter percentage point when they meet June 29-30. At 1 percent, the overnight bank lending rate is the lowest in 46 years.

Fed Move `Certain'

``A 25 basis-point increase this month is pretty much a certainty at this point,'' said Cary Leahey, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York, before the report.

U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell after the report. The 4 3/4 percent note maturing in May 2014 rose about 1/8, pushing down its yield 2 basis points to 4.69 percent at 9 a.m. in New York.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in June rose 9.80 to 1124.70. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 78 to 10,263 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures increased 18 to 1461.

Revisions to April and March boosted payrolls by an additional 74,000. The increase of 947,000 jobs during the past three months was the most for any comparable period since March- May 2000.

``The floodgates have opened,'' said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``Executives have finally decided that this expansion is for real.''

Economists had expected payrolls would rise by 225,000 following a previously reported increase of 288,000 in April, according to the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. They projected the unemployment rate would hold at 5.6 percent.

`Tug of War'

The economy has created 1.2 million jobs so far this year. Employment gains have yet to help President George W. Bush blunt criticism about his handling of the economy as concerns mount about record gasoline costs and the war in Iraq.

``You have a tug of war between higher oil prices and employment,'' said Leahey, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York, before the report. ``Those negative factors are very important, but will be trumped by a strong labor market.''

Job gains are coming at a time when gasoline prices have reached record highs and unrest has mounted in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East, restraining consumer optimism. Polls last week showed Bush's job approval ratings dropped to the lowest of his presidency as a majority disapproved of the way he was handling economic policy.

``We do not pick up on our data that the American public is perceiving that the economy is getting better,'' said Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll, in an interview yesterday. ``The prospects of inflation and the gas prices are a big negative. And there may be a bleed-over effect from Iraq.'' Gallup has been tracking public opinion on the presidential races since the 1936 election.

Manufacturing Jobs

In an Oct. 20 interview with the Times of London, Treasury Secretary John Snow predicted the U.S. economy would grow around 4 percent over the next year and said such growth should ``translate into roughly two million new jobs from the third quarter of this year to the third quarter of 2004.''

So far, the economy has grown at a 4.25 percent average annual rate and created 1,368,000 jobs since the end of the third quarter.

Manufacturers added 32,000 jobs last month, the most since a 143,000 jump in August 1998 and the fourth straight increase. In April, factory payrolls rose by 29,000. The manufacturing workweek rose to 41.1 hours from 40.7 in April. Overtime rose by six minutes to 4.7 hours, the most since July 2000.

Average weekly hours worked for all employees held at 33.8 hours in May for a fifth month.

Incomes increased last month. Workers' average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent, or 5 cents, matching the previous month's rise. Economists had expected a 0.2 percent increase in hourly wages. Average weekly earnings rose to $528.63 last month from $526.94 in April.

Services

Employment in service-producing industries, which include retailers, banks and government agencies, increased 176,000 last month after rising 294,000 in April. The increase, was led by a 64,000 rise in professional and business services jobs, such as those at temporary help agencies.

Construction employment increased 37,000 in May after a 19,000 increase. Payrolls rose 44,000 at education and health services after a 39,000 rise.

``The recovery is there,'' said Jeff Potter, chief executive at Frontier Airlines Inc., a Denver-based low-fare carrier, in an interview yesterday. ``We see people are flying.''

Frontier plans to boost its fleet to 62 aircraft by 2008 from 42 currently and employee 6,000 workers compared with 4,300, Potter said.

CEO Forecast

Twice as many chief executives said their companies would hire workers in the next six months than said they would eliminate staff, according to the results of a quarterly survey issued Wednesday by the Business Roundtable, a 150-member association of business leaders. Of the 116 executives polled, 38 percent predicted hiring would rise while 19 percent expected to cut jobs.

``We waited as long as we could to start hiring again, just to make sure it was sustainable, but the backlog of orders was growing significantly,'' said Fred Ouweleen, president of Pacific Miniatures, a Fullerton, California-based maker of airplane models for commercial carriers. The company has added 16 percent more workers to its payrolls in the last six months.

Turck Inc., which makes sensors for automated manufacturing lines, plans to add 75 workers to its 435-member workforce, Chief Executive Bill Schneider said in an interview. The Plymouth, Minnesota-based company had a 21 percent increase in revenue in the first quarter compared with a year earlier.

The price of crude oil rose to a record this week amid heightened concerns that terrorism would disrupt Middle East supplies. The average price of a gallon of gasoline at the pump rose to a record $2.104 in the week ended May 24, according to Department of Energy data.

Consumer Spending

A gain of 100,000 jobs a month would be enough to neutralize the effects of rising oil prices, higher interest rates and the loss of cash from less refinancing, said Deutsche Securities' Leahey. Economists at Deutsche Securities project payroll gains will surpass 200,000 a month on average for the rest of the year.

More hiring is fostering stronger income gains. Incomes rose 5.7 percent in the 12 months ended in April, the biggest year-over- year increase since December 2000, the Commerce Department reported last week.

Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, is likely to expand at a 4.2 percent annual pace this quarter after growing 3.9 percent in the first three months of the year, according to a forecast by James O'Sullivan and other economists at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. The increase will propel the economy to a 4.5 percent annualized rate of growth this quarter compared with 4.4 percent in the previous three months, according to the forecast.

The economy is projected to grow 4.6 percent this year, the most since 1984, led by consumer and business spending, according to economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg News.

Among blacks, the unemployment rate rose to 9.9 percent from 9.7 percent in April. The jobless rate for Hispanics decreased to 7 percent from 7.2 percent and for whites rose to 5 percent from 4.9 percent.

For teenagers, unemployment rose to 17.2 percent last month from 16.9 percent. The jobless rate for women fell to 4.8 percent from 5 percent. The jobless rate for men increased to 5.2 percent from 5 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Carlos Torres in Washington ctorres2@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: June 4, 2004 09:02 EDT