June 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise on expectations that economic growth in China and the U.S. will spur demand in the world's two largest energy-consuming nations.

Eighteen of 45 analysts and traders, or 40 percent, surveyed by Bloomberg News said prices will rise next week. Fourteen projected a decline and 13 said oil will be little changed. Last week, 56 percent of respondents predicted a drop.

China's fastest industrial output growth in two years helped boost oil imports 19 percent in May from a year earlier, government reports said this week. Manufacturing grew faster in New York and Philadelphia than economists forecast, the Federal Reserve said yesterday. The U.S. and China use 33 percent of the world's oil.

``The Chinese industrial and demand numbers were huge,'' said Phil Flynn, vice president of risk management at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. ``Ever since 1999, the Chinese have led the way and the growth has spread around the globe.''

Crude oil for July delivery fell $2.13, or 3 percent, to $69.50 a barrel in the first four days of trading this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $75.35 on April 21 and April 24, the highest since trading began in 1983. Oil traded little changed today, rising 6 cents to $69.55 at 12:28 p.m. London time.

Oil Demand

The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 developed nations, increased its estimate for 2006 global consumption in a report on June 13. Oil demand will average 84.9 million barrels a day, 70,000 barrels a day more than estimated a month ago, the Paris-based agency said. Economic growth in Asia and Latin America will be the primary driver, the IEA said.

``Fears over emerging economic slowing appear to have eased as quickly as they emerged,'' said John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at Fimat USA in New York. ``Worries over the future sufficiency of supplies and geopolitical worries should push prices higher next week.''

Oil has risen 15 percent this year partly on concern that exports from Iran may be cut because of the dispute over the Middle East country's nuclear research.

Rebel attacks in Nigeria have cut crude oil output by 800,000 barrels a day since the militants began taking hostages and assaulting oil facilities earlier this year, the Nigerian newspaper the Guardian reported on June 12. Nigeria is the fifth-biggest U.S. oil supplier.

Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that soaring energy costs may slow economic growth and spur inflation in the short term, while being manageable over a longer period of time.

Speculation that the Fed will raise interest rates, slowing economic growth and fuel demand in the U.S., has contributed to the 4.4 percent fall in prices from their April record.

``Oil will decline next week on concerns that a more hawkish Federal Reserve will engineer a soft landing of the U.S. economy, reducing the growth pace of demand for oil,'' said Dariusz Kowalczyk, senior investment strategist at CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong.

Gasoline stockpiles jumped 2.8 million barrels in the week ended June 9, easing concern that refiners wouldn't be able to meet peak summer fuel demand. Inventories were expected to climb by 1.1 million barrels, according to the median of forecasts by 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Gasoline Output

U.S. refiners raised gasoline output to 9.21 million barrels a day last week, the highest rate since July 1. They used 92.7 percent of their plant capacity to do so, the highest since August, and 1.2 percentage points more than analysts had expected.

``After seven consecutive builds in DOE gasoline stocks it certainly looks like we'll make it through another summer with adequate supplies,'' said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``Crude and distillate inventories are well above average, so there's really no overall supply crisis here.''

U.S. oil stockpiles fell 980,000 barrels to 345.7 million in the week ended June 9, the Energy Department said, almost twice the 500,000-barrel decline forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.

The survey has correctly predicted the direction of prices 50 percent of the time since it was introduced in April 2004.

     Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

               RISE      NEUTRAL    FALL
                18          13       14

To contact the reporters on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net; Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: June 16, 2006 07:34 EDT