By Alistair Holloway
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Coal for shipment from South Africa's Richards Bay, site of the world's largest export terminal for the fuel, rose to a record on limited global supplies of the fuel.
Transport constraints and a June derailment disrupted Richards Bay exports this year. At current monthly rates the port will ship 60 million metric tons of coal in 2008 compared with capacity of 76 million tons. Availability is also being squeezed by Australian bottlenecks and Chinese export cuts, forcing Asian buyers to seek supplies in South Africa and Indonesia.
``Everyone seems to have problems delivering the right tonnages at this time,'' Xavier Prevost, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie in Johannesburg, said by telephone. ``If you look at Australia, Indonesia, Russia, there are problems.''
Richards Bay export prices advanced $17.80, or 11 percent, to an average of $176.80 a ton in the week ended July 4, according to McCloskey Group Ltd. That's an 84 percent increase for the year. More than a quarter of Europe's energy coal ships from Richards Bay.
Citigroup Inc. cited supply constraints in a report today. It raised estimates for benchmark power coal to $200 a ton in the 2009 Japanese financial year starting on April 1 from a previous estimate of $80.
``A sustained pullback in coal prices is implausible,'' analysts Alan Heap and Alex Tonks in Sydney said. Thermal coal ``prices will remain robust.''
Limited supplies pushed thermal coal at Australia's Newcastle port, a benchmark for Asia, to a sixth straight record. Prices gained $22.69 to $194.79 a metric ton in the week ended July 4, according to the globalCOAL NEWC Index. It remains $17.99 a ton more expensive than supplies at Richards Bay.
Coal Supplies
Global coal supplies may shrink further. Vietnam will cut overall exports for the fuel by as much as 38 percent this year to ensure domestic supplies, Nguyen Thanh Bien, vice minister of industry and trade, said July 2.
China, the biggest buyer of Vietnamese coal, faces power shortages and is rationing electricity in Shanxi, its largest coal-producing province. That may curb Chinese coal exports and boost imports of the fuel.
``Shanxi running short of coal for power generation is a bit like Saudi Arabia running short of oil,'' John Kemp, an analyst at RBS Sempra in London, said in an e-mail today. It ``will also prove strongly bullish for thermal coal supplies worldwide. China is unlikely to resume substantial net coal exports'' within the next several years, he said.
Coal derivatives, financial instruments used to bet on future prices, climbed. Coal for delivery to Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Antwerp with settlement next year advanced $4, or 1.9 percent, to $211.50 a ton by 1:39 p.m. in London. The data reflect actual trades supplied by ICAP Plc, GFI Group Inc., Spectron Group Ltd., Tullett Prebon Plc and TFS.
Fossil Fuels
Power utilities in the 27-nation European Union, such as E.ON AG, Germany's biggest, need permits to burn fossil fuels, with coal needing twice as many as cleaner natural gas.
A U.K. power utility could make a profit of about 18.74 pounds ($36.84) a megawatt-hour burning Dutch-delivery coal compared with 10.24 pounds burning U.K. natural gas in the six months through September 2009, the clean spark-spread and clean dark-spread show.
The spreads are calculated using the forward prices today for power, gas, coal and permits from energy brokers and exchanges published by Bloomberg.
Coal generates 40 percent of the world's electricity, according to German coal-importer group Verein der Kohlenimporteure E.V.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alistair Holloway in London at aholloway1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 7, 2008 09:54 EDT
HOME
