Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Sometimes it takes a bit of humor to make sense of the global economy.

In that spirit, Asia-Pacific leaders gathering in Busan, South Korea, may want to check out pop icon Ben Stein's latest take on the region. It offers an amusing and useful view of China's rise.

Yes, his biography highlights roles in films like ``Ferris Bueller's Day Off'' and mentions he attended high school with Sylvester Stallone and Goldie Hawn. The former host of ``Win Ben Stein's Money'' also wrote speeches for U.S. Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford and remains a commentator of some note.

What is Stein saying about China? Don't believe the hype.

``It all reminds me a lot of how the news media and the Central Intelligence Agency went berserk after the launching of Sputnik in 1957, and it was forecast that the Soviet Union would soon be the world's technological and economic hegemony,'' he wrote in August. ``That talk was based on a number of faulty assumptions and a good deal of hysteria. Obviously, it didn't happen.''

APEC Caution

I was reminded of Stein's point during conversations I had in Russia in September. Ask many citizens of Moscow or St. Petersburg if China will soon rule the world and you'll get a roll of the eyes and some variation of: ``Well, isn't that what the Soviet Union was supposed to do? Look at us today.''

Now superimpose those sentiments over President George W. Bush's visit to Kyoto, Japan, the other day. There, as Bush was en route to Korea for this week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, he reminded the world not to take Japan for granted when predicting Asia's future. It was a good point.

What's disturbing is that leaders of the biggest economies are fretting over China's strengths, not its vulnerabilities. A financial crisis there would have huge implications for the global economy. Rather than asking officials in Beijing what they're doing to shore up the financial system and avoid social instability, world leaders are focusing on China's currency.

With so many serious people missing the big picture, perhaps a humorist like Stein can help out.

China Hype

``One disadvantage of being 60 is that you have to get up in the middle of the night, often more than once,'' Stein wrote recently. ``But a big advantage of advancing age is that you get to recognize news media silliness when it happens. This comes to mind in terms of the economic relationship between the United States and China.''

This column has made the argument before that the hype over China resembles the dot-com silliness of the late 1990s. Back then, analysts and journalists who dared question the wisdom of buying stocks like Pets.com or Boo.com were dismissed as dinosaurs who couldn't grasp the ``New Economy.'' Those raising doubts about dodgy accounting tactics were shushed.

China's advance feels a lot like that. Want to annoy a room full of executives or investors? Just express a bit of skepticism on China's ability to sustain growth of more than 9 percent.

Watch how red faces become when you question the wisdom of buying shares in China Construction Bank Corp. or other state-run banks. Observe how furrows come to brows at the suggestion that the Communist Party can't maintain the peace indefinitely. See how folks shift in their seats when you argue China's advance may be an environmental disaster waiting to happen.

New Chinese Economy?

It's not that China, with the world's seventh-biggest economy, is likely to collapse; the potential is astounding.

What is out of kilter is the sense that nothing will go wrong, that China's leadership is superior to that of other nations, that Asia's ``New Economy'' has suspended the rules that apply to all national economies. Anyone who raises those doubts, in a pattern that's all too familiar, is ridiculed or ignored.

Even Stein has been dropping the humor of late. Last week, he told CNBC that ``no bubble goes on forever. We know that from history. The Chinese bubble won't go on forever.''

Much of China's promise is based on its population of 1.3 billion, the largest in the world. Rising incomes there may lead to vast markets for companies and investment banks everywhere. What is transpiring in China is rivaled by developments throughout Asia. India and Southeast Asia, in particular, are ready to roar, too.

Don't Forget Japan

Developing economies are looking inward, trading more amongst themselves and creating relationships the likes of which the world has never known. Increasingly, China needs India to ensure its growth, and vice versa. The symbiosis that exists in this region is bigger than China.

And don't forget Japan. ``Now, because of the recovery in Japan, Japanese savers and investors may be more willing to take risks abroad,'' says Masahiro Kawai, special adviser to the President of the Asian Development Bank. ``That means more capital could flow to Asian countries that need it.''

So rather than giving China too much credit or fearing its rise, APEC officials should be seeking assurances it's on top of the multitude of risks facing the economy. If China hits a wall, so might large parts of the global financial system. And that, unlike some of Stein's musings, will be anything but a laughing matter.

To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek Jr. in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 17, 2005 14:56 EST