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Oil Jumps to Record $52.02 as Supplies Rise Less Than Expected

By Mark Shenk

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York jumped to a record $52.02 a barrel, pulling gasoline and heating oil higher, after the Energy Department reported that U.S. stockpiles increased less than expected.

Supplies gained 1.1 million barrels to 274 million in the week ended Oct 1. A rise of 2.75 million barrels was forecast, according to the median of responses by 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Inventories of distillate fuel, which includes heating oil and diesel, plunged 2.1 million barrels to 123.4 million, the lowest since the week ended Aug. 6.

``The rise in prices is already leading to a downturn in consumer confidence,'' said Gina Martin, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte. ``It will shave 1 to 1.5 percentage points from GDP during the next three to four quarters as the increase works its way through the system.''

Crude oil for November delivery rose 93 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $52.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since futures began trading in 1983. Oil reached $52.15 a barrel, a record intraday price. Futures were up 71 percent from a year earlier.

In London, the November Brent crude-oil futures contract rose 86 cents, or 1.8 percent, to close at a record $47.99 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brent reached $48.10 a barrel, the highest intraday price since the contract began trading in 1988.

Slower Growth

The average cost of oil used by U.S. refiners was $35.24 a barrel in 1981, according to the Energy Department. That's $73.39 in 2004 dollars. In 1974, a barrel of oil averaged $9.07, which would be $34.83 today. Prices surged that year after the Arab oil embargo that followed the Arab-Israeli war of 1973.

U.S. crude oil supplies declined 26.5 million barrels, or 8.8 percent, in the last ten weekly reports from the department.

Hurricane Ivan has pared a total of 16.1 million barrels of oil production since Sept. 13, according to the U.S. Minerals Management Service, part of the Interior Department. Oil production at offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico averages 1.7 million barrels on a normal day, the service said.

Imports rose 3 percent to 10.2 million barrels a day last week, the report showed. The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, the biggest U.S. crude-oil import terminal, was open last week after shutting from Sept. 13 to Sept. 18 and from Sept. 22 to Sept. 23 because of Ivan.

`Playing Catch-Up'

``We're still playing catch-up,'' said Mark Bugg, scheduling manager at New Orleans-based Loop LLC, the port operator. ``It doesn't look like we will be caught up until the month of October is over.''

Ivan was the most destructive Gulf of Mexico storm for energy companies since Hurricane Andrew sank or damaged 87 platforms and rigs in 48 hours starting Aug. 24, 1992.

``Reduced domestic production may lead to additional business for us,'' Bugg said. ``The missing domestic barrels are likely to be replaced by imports.''

Heating-oil supplies fell 1.2 million barrels to 51.2 million, leaving stockpiles 11 percent lower than average at this point in the last five years.

Heating oil for November delivery rose 1.41 cents, or 1 percent, at $1.4209 a gallon in New York, the highest close since the contract was introduced in 1978. Gasoline rose 2.09 cents, or 1.5 percent, to close at $1.3875 a gallon, the highest since May 28.

Consumer Pain

Homeowners using heating oil in the Northeast will pay an average $1,223 for fuel for the 2004-05 winter, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration predicted in its Winter Fuels Outlook. It would be a 28 percent increase over last winter, according to the report.

``Higher prices have a disproportionate effect on lower- income people,'' Martin said. ``The price rise will work its way into things people buy such as heating oil and gasoline. You have to heat your house and get around and people with lower incomes will have to cut back elsewhere.''

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased output for a fifth consecutive month in September, rising to more than 30 million barrels a day for the first time in 25 years, as members tried to temper a rally in prices, according to Bloomberg data. Production by all 11 OPEC members rose 2 percent from August to 30.53 million barrels a day.

``What's so worrying is that inventories are low at the same time OPEC is producing all-out,'' said Paul Sankey, an analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York.

A Nigerian oil workers' union said it will strike from Sunday unless President Olusegun Obasanjo's administration cuts fuel prices. Talks with the government today broke down.

The National Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers of Nigeria, or Nupeng, plans to join a nationwide strike over fuel prices called by Nigeria Labour Congress, expected to start on Monday. Oil workers joined a strike in June that didn't affect oil exports. Nigeria is the fifth-biggest supplier of U.S. oil imports and OPEC's sixth-biggest producer last month.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 6, 2004 15:33 EDT