Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Norwegian Prime Minister Kjell Magne Bondevik may be ousted in an election this month, an opinion poll today indicated, as voters seek a government that will spend more of the oil money the country has set aside for future generations.

Bondevik, 57, a Christian Democrat, took power in 2001 and oversaw a recovery that may peak at 3.75 percent growth this year, a five-year high and the fastest in the Nordic region. Today's poll for the newspaper Nationen showed the opposition Labor, Socialist Left and Center parties, which are pledging to refurbish schools and improve health care, may win a majority of seats in the election Sept. 12.

``We should be able to spend more on health and welfare with all the oil revenue coming in,'' said Marianne Groentvedt, 33, a mother of two living on the island of Tjome, south of Oslo, in an interview. ``The current government has failed on these issues the past four years.''

Norway, the world's third-largest oil exporter, has since 1996 put part of its oil revenue into a fund that the central bank invests abroad to avoid stoking the domestic economy. The fund reached $186 billion in July, while gross domestic product amounted to $250 billion last year. As the fund grows, government politicians are having a hard time explaining why they can't boost public spending.

``As long as we have a visible oil fund it's a problem to get re-elected in Norway. People always want to spend more,'' Finance Minister Per-Kristian Foss said at a press conference in Oslo on Aug. 30. ``In Norwegian elections you're first and foremost faced with expectations of more spending on everything.''

Spending Increase

The government is already spending more of the oil revenue than planned. Bondevik has parliamentary approval to use an average 4 percent of the fund every year, a limit that will be exceeded for a fourth year in 2005, according to a government report on May 13.

Norway's public spending has increased by 29 percent to 652 billion kroner ($102 billion) a year since the government took power four years ago, according to budget data. The extra spending has been used for pensions, benefits for the disabled and sick and extra transfers to the country's municipalities, which run local schools and old people's homes.

Still, the 4.6 million Norwegians, whose spending has increased in all but one month during the past four years, are prepared to oust the current administration, polls show.

Loss of Support

The governing coalition of Conservatives, Christian Democrats and Liberals may only win 42 of the 169 seats in parliament in the Sept. 12 election, according to calculations by Bernt Aardal, an election researcher at the University of Oslo. That's down from 62 in the current legislature, which has four fewer members.

Aardal based his calculation on the average of polls published in Norway Aug. 22 to Aug. 28. The opposition, headed by Labor Party leader Jens Stoltenberg, may win 90 seats, giving it a majority.

Today's poll also gave the Labor-led coalition 90 seats, with Bondevik's coalition on 49 seats. The poll carried out by Sentio was based on phone interviews with 1,000 people between Aug. 23 and Aug. 28. The newspaper didn't disclose a margin of error.

Bondevik has held power during a period in which Norway, which is about the size of New Mexico, has seen growth fanned by record low interest rates and tax cuts, as well as the record oil revenue.

Bondevik has said he will end his 32-year career in Norwegian politics if defeated. He isn't seeking re-election to parliament. He has been prime minister twice, spanning a total of 6 1/2 years. He first led a coalition of the Christian Democrats, the Liberals and the Center Party from 1997 to 2000.

The prime minister, who was ordained a Lutheran priest in 1979, has also served as foreign minister and minister for the churches and education.

`Tired' of Bondevik

``Bondevik has been there for so many years and I am in general getting a bit tired of him,'' said Elise Haga Johnsen, a 27 year-old woman working in an Oslo florist, in an interview. Still, she said she thinks ``there won't be much of a difference whoever is in power.''

When Bondevik took office in after the last election in 2001, the mainland economy, which excludes output from crude oil production and shipping, expanded at an annual rate of 1.1 percent and the central bank's benchmark rate was 7 percent. The bank started cutting borrowing costs in December 2002.

Between then and March 2004, it lowered its key rate 10 times to boost growth. The bank reduced the rate to a record 1.75 percent, where it was held for more than a year until policy maker raised it to 2 percent again on June 30.

Spending Rise

The record low borrowing costs boosted consumer spending, and retail sales have on average increased 4.1 percent a year since October 2001.

`The Norwegian economy is in an upturn and is now expanding at a brisk pace,'' said Jarle Bergo, the deputy governor of the central bank, in a speech on Aug. 25. ``The low level of interest rates is supporting the high activity level in the Norwegian economy.''

Tax cuts worth about 23.5 billion kroner also helped consumers and companies. The government cut income taxes and levies on goods such as alcohol and agricultural products.

Still, growth will slow to 3 percent next year, according to the central bank.

While the Bondevik coalition has promised more tax cuts, the Labor Party has complained that the reductions already implemented have benefited the rich too much. Stoltenberg therefore wants to reverse some of them.

``People seem to think that they have received enough tax cuts and now have other priorities such as increased spending on welfare,'' said Rune Karlsen, an election researcher at the University of Oslo, in a telephone interview.

To contact the reporter on this story: Trygve Meyer in Oslo at tmeyer2@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 1, 2005 07:25 EDT