By Joram Kanner
July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Heineken NV, the Dutch brewer that sells beer in more than 170 countries, doubled its forecast for profit growth as sales increased in Russia and Poland. The shares rose the most in nine years.
Profit, excluding currency swings and one-time items, will rise between 20 percent and 25 percent this year, Amsterdam-based Heineken said today in a statement. The company had earlier forecast growth of between 10 percent and 13 percent.
Sales of Polish and Russian brands paced revenue growth of 12 percent in the first half in central and eastern Europe, the brewer's biggest market by volume of beer sold. Heineken, Scottish & Newcastle Plc, Carlsberg A/S and InBev NV have expanded in emerging markets as sales in western Europe slowed.
``The surprise is how strong its emerging-markets business has been,'' said Trevor Stirling, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in London with a ``market perform'' rating on the stock. Earnings-per-share estimates for Heineken ``have to rise.''
Shares of Heineken rose as much as 3.62 euros, or 8.5 percent, to 46.45 euros and traded at 46.25 euros at 12:39 p.m. in Amsterdam. The company's forecast fueled gains among Europe's brewing stocks. Carlsberg advanced as much as 5.4 percent in Copenhagen and InBev climbed as much as 3 percent in Brussels. Scottish & Newcastle stock rose as much as 5.4 percent in London.
More Income
Dennis Weber, an analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort in London, raised his recommendation on Heineken stock to ``buy'' from ``hold'' and his price estimate to 50 euros from 43.70 euros.
``The industry is on fire,'' said Rob Mann, an analyst at Collins Stewart in London.
OAO Baltika Breweries, Russia's largest beermaker that's controlled jointly by Scottish & Newcastle and Carlsberg, said May 10 first-quarter profit climbed 54 percent and sales rose 46 percent, citing unusually warm winter weather.
``In Poland and Russia there is more disposable income, which is reflected in beer sales,'' said Marcel Hooijmaijers, an analyst at Kepler Landsbanki in Amsterdam. ``Companies like Heineken, InBev and Scottish & Newcastle are doing well there.''
Ochota beer, Zywiec and Warka Jasne Pelne were among Heineken brands that fueled sales growth in the first half.
The Dutch company, which said in its annual report in March that it faced ``challenges'' in the Netherlands, Italy and France, sold 1 percent more beer in western Europe in the first half.
Mexican Partnership
InBev's western European sales dropped 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2007. Scottish & Newcastle this month said beer sales in the entire U.K. market fell 5 percent in the first half of the year. The company also said the wholesale business in France was ``extremely challenging.''
Heineken sold 4.3 percent more beer in the Americas in the first half. In the Asia Pacific region and Africa, the quantity of beer sold increased 31 percent and 17 percent, respectively.
``I was expecting a strong result, but this is stronger than expected,'' said Ben Maitland, an analyst at WestLB Equity Markets in London. ``It's a very good result and our target price will go up on this.'' He has an ``add'' recommendation on the stock.
Last month, Heineken extended its partnership with Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB, Latin America's largest beverage company, in Brazil for 10 years. Femsa, as the Mexican brewer is known, will continue as the exclusive brewer, distributor, marketer and seller of Heineken beer in the South American country until 2017. InBev controls two-thirds of the Brazilian beer market.
Premium Light
The brewer, which last week confirmed that it is on track to meet its annual sales goal for Heineken Premium Light in the U.S., also said today the target for 2007 of one million hectoliters was ``challenging.'' Sales of Heineken Premium Light rose 30 percent in the period, the company said.
``In the U.S., the combination of a 3.5 percent average price increase and mixed weather held back volume growth of the Dutch brand portfolio,'' said Veronique Schyns, a spokeswoman at Heineken's Amsterdam headquarters.
The company repeated its forecast for gross savings of between 135 million and 155 million euros for this year. Heineken will publish first-half earnings on Aug. 29 before trading starts.
To contact the reporter on this story: Joram Kanner in Amsterdam at jkanner@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 18, 2007 07:38 EDT
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