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Oil Rises to Highest in Five Weeks on U.S. Cold, OPEC Meeting

By Mark Shenk

Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a five-week high as falling temperatures in the U.S. spurred demand for heating oil. Prices also gained after OPEC hinted at a meeting in Kuwait today that it may cut oil production in 2006.

Home-heating demand in the Northeast, where 80 percent of the nation's heating oil is used, will be 13 percent above normal through Dec. 19, said Weather Derivatives, a forecaster in Belton, Missouri. OPEC, which pumps about 40 percent of the world's oil, said forecasts for lower second-quarter demand may prompt members to trim output when they meet next on Jan. 31.

``The weather's cold and it looks like it will prevail for quite a while,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst with Citigroup Inc. in Houston. ``Mother Nature is a bull and until she changes her plans prices will be under upward pressure. OPEC has a slight effect but there were no big surprises coming out of the meeting.''

Crude oil for January delivery rose $1.91, or 3.2 percent, to $61.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price since Nov. 3. Futures are down 13 percent since reaching a record $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30, the day after Hurricane Katrina struck Louisiana and Mississippi. Prices are 51 percent higher than a year ago.

Heating oil for January delivery rose 4.07 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $1.7725 a gallon in New York. Heating oil reached a record $2.21 on Sept. 1. Futures have gained 45 percent in the past year.

``December is shaping up to be a very cold month,'' said Dale Mohler, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. ``It looks like we have a very cold air mass moving into the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states.'' Temperatures may fall near 0 Fahrenheit (minus 18 Celsius) just outside of New York by Wednesday, he said.

OPEC Quota

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed today to keep output quotas unchanged at 28.0 million barrels a day and to withdraw a previous offer to use as much of its 2 million barrels a day of spare capacity as needed. Iraq is the only member without a production quota.

``They took away the offer of 2 million barrels that no one had taken them up on, so it's no big deal,'' Cooper said.

OPEC output last month rose an average 30,000 barrels to 30.25 million barrels a day, according to a Dec. 5 Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. The 10 members with quotas produced an average 28.6 million barrels a day, the survey showed.

OPEC Output

The members with quotas are now producing 28.2 million barrels a day, OPEC President Sheikh Ahmad Fahd al-Sabah said. ``The production will be maintained,'' he said. ``Although we say everyone has to comply to the ceiling, I doubt that somebody will drop.''

OPEC in September pledged to fill every order for more supply after prices soared in the wake of production shortfalls caused by Hurricane Katrina. The offer will expire on Dec. 31 because the oil isn't required, al-Sabah said today.

``They talked so much in advance that the result of today's meeting was a foregone conclusion,'' said Marshall Steeves, an energy analyst at Man Financial Inc. in New York. ``There will be no difference in the amount of oil available. The only new piece of information was the date of the next meeting.''

OPEC members will meet next month in Vienna to discuss whether to reduce production because of an estimated 2 million- barrel-a-day drop in world demand during the second quarter.

`Market in Balance'

``As we get closer to the second quarter of 2006, that may warrant action of a different kind to keep the market in balance,'' said Ali al-Naimi, oil minister for Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer. ``In this meeting we are leaving things as they are.''

Brent crude oil for January delivery rose $2.13, or 3.7 percent, to $59.44 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures exchange, formerly the International Petroleum Exchange. It was the highest close since Nov. 3. Brent surged to a record $68.89 Aug. 30.

Gasoline for January delivery rose 4.19 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $1.6468 a gallon in New York, the highest close since Oct. 25. Gasoline surged to a record $2.92 a gallon on Aug. 31. Prices are up 53 percent from a year ago.

Regular gasoline at the pump, averaged nationwide, rose 0.4 cent to $2.175 a gallon on Dec. 9, AAA said today on its Web site. Prices are down 29 percent from the record $3.057 a gallon on Sept. 2, according to the AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization. Pump prices are 17 percent higher than a year ago.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: December 12, 2005 15:37 EST