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Oil Rises to Record $67.10 on Concern Supplies Are Inadequate

By Mark Shenk

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record for a fifth straight day, touching $67.10 a barrel in New York on speculation that increased fuel demand may outpace production capacity.

At least 14 disruptions at U.S. refineries since July 20 increased concern that fuel supplies will be insufficient. U.S. refineries operated at 95 percent of capacity last week as they tried to meet peak gasoline use. The U.S. consumes 25 percent of the world's oil. Prices rose 53 percent this year as producers failed to make up for declining output at older fields.

``There are concerns that supply is peaking,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst with Citigroup Inc. in Houston. ``Demand is still good and we are having a number of refinery hiccups. There are refinery problems every year but it does appear that they are occurring more frequently than usual.''

Crude oil for September delivery rose 95 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $66.75 a barrel at 1:57 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures trading began in 1983. Prices are up 47 percent from a year ago.

Gasoline for September delivery rose 5.12 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $2.001 a gallon in New York. Prices touched $2.008 a gallon, the highest since trading began in 1984. Heating oil for September delivery rose 1.55 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $1.914 a gallon. Futures touched $1.935, the highest since the contract began trading in 1978.

Oil may rise further next week as demand for gasoline and other fuels increases, a Bloomberg survey of 69 analysts and strategists yesterday showed.

`Supply-Demand Imbalances'

``There are profound supply-demand imbalances in the world and I see no sign of them being corrected anytime soon,'' said Stephen Leeb, who manages $140 million, including an undisclosed number of ConocoPhillips shares, at Leeb Capital Management in New York. ``I think we are in an early inning of a period where high energy prices will dominate the economy.''

Global fuel consumption will rise 2 percent, or 1.6 million barrels a day this year, the International Energy Agency said yesterday. The Paris-based agency reduced its 2005 non-OPEC supply forecast by about 200,000 barrels a day, prompted by shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico, Norway and U.K. It cut its 2006 estimate by 400,000 barrels a day.

The U.S. imported record levels of crude oil in June as the economy began to accelerate, helping propel the nation's trade deficit to a wider-than-expected $58.8 billion. The trade gap swelled 6.1 percent to the third-widest ever from $55.4 billion in May, the Commerce Department said. The U.S. imported $14.6 billion of oil as both prices and the number of barrels rose.

Economic growth is being trimmed by 0.3 to 0.6 percentage point by high oil prices, Treasury Secretary John Snow said in an interview yesterday. ``They clearly are a negative,'' Snow said. ``They create headwinds and slow the economy down.''

Gasoline Pump Price

Retail gasoline prices gained as refiners passed on higher oil costs. Pump prices for regular grade gasoline rose 1.6 cents to a record $2.413 a gallon yesterday, according to the AAA, formerly the American Automobile Association. Prices are 30 percent higher than a year ago.

Peak U.S. gasoline consumption runs through the Labor Day holiday on Sept. 5, a period when Americans take to the highways for summer vacations. Gasoline consumption was up 1.4 percent in the four weeks ended Aug. 5 from a year earlier, the Energy Department said on Aug. 10.

`Steady Drumbeat'

``The steady drumbeat of refinery outages has moved us higher,'' said Rick Mueller, an analyst with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``Refinery outages have pulled up product prices, supporting crude oil. They have improved refinery margins, pushing refiners that have any capacity to process crude and secure future supplies.''

The profit margin for turning a barrel of oil into heating oil and gasoline is $16.158 today, the highest in at least 16 years, based on futures prices in New York. That is more than double the margin a year ago.

``The confluence of widespread refinery problems and outages in the North Sea and Gulf has raised supply worries,'' said Jim Steel, director of commodity research at Refco Inc. in New York. ``We are within striking distance of $70, but it's questionable we will breach it with the end of the driving season coming and apparently adequate heating oil supplies on hand.''

In London, the September Brent crude-oil futures contract rose $1.06, or 1.6 percent, to $66.44 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brent touched $66.77 a barrel, the highest since trading began in 1988.

North Sea

Brent loadings will drop 31 percent next month as repairs disrupt output in the North Sea, according to a loading program obtained by Bloomberg. BP Plc, the world's second-largest publicly traded oil company, said that production at its 120,000 barrel-a-day Schiehallion field won't be restored until the end of the month.

Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 2 percent to 129.9 million barrels last week, the highest since January 2004, according to the department.

``We've had a scare during every product season for the last two years and there have been no shortages except in China where there are price controls,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, a Winchester, Massachusetts-based consultant.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 12, 2005 14:23 EDT