By Mark Shenk
July 28 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures rose to a record after OAO Yukos Oil Co., Russia's biggest oil exporter, said the government ordered a halt to production from its main Siberian unit.
The order forbids units from selling property, in effect banning oil sales and forcing a stop in output, Yukos lawyer Dmitry Gololobov said in a letter to chief bailiff Arkady Melnikov. Russia is seeking to recover $3.4 billion in back taxes and fines. Russia has attracted investment from BP Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp. and other companies searching for reserves.
``This is detrimental to the long-term supply outlook,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst with Citigroup Inc. in Houston. ``It will become much harder to attract foreign investment in the Russian oil industry. Any investor in the future will demand much higher returns to make such a risky venture.''
Crude oil for September delivery was up 98 cents, or 2.3 percent, at $42.82 a barrel at 11:35 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached $43.05, the highest since trading began in 1983. Prices were 42 percent higher than a year earlier.
In London, the September Brent crude oil futures contract was up 84 cents, or 2.2 percent, at $39.38 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Oil futures reached $39.60, the highest for a most-active oil contract in more than 13 years.
Chinese Shipments
Yukos may stop rail shipments to China, the world's second- largest oil consumer, next week because the company cannot access its bank accounts, Chief Executive Steven Theede told reporters in the Siberian city of Nizhnevartovsk. It has prepaid until the end of next week for rail shipments, which carry a quarter of the company's oil output, Theede said.
``It looks like rail shipments are insured through the first week in August. After that the oil may be taken off the market,'' said Marshall Steeves, an analyst with Refco Inc. in New York. ``If shipments actually stop, the market will move quite a bit higher.''
Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, supplied about 8.5 percent of China's crude-oil imports in the first half of 2004. Yukos ships 400,000 barrels a day of its crude oil by rail, Theede said.
Dissenting View
``The threat posed by Yukos is overblown,'' said Sarah Emerson, managing director of Energy Security Analysis Inc., a consulting firm in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``There is plenty of production capacity in Russia. The problem has been the shortage of export capacity. I'm sure other companies would be happy to fill any shortfall.''
Growth in economies in Asia, the U.S. and Europe has spurred record demand for petroleum products. Consumption is rising as members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pump close to their capacity and refineries strain to meet demand for gasoline and diesel.
``There's a real supply-demand imbalance in the world right now and that's reflected in the market,'' said Stephen Leeb, who manages $100 million at U.S. Global Investors Inc., including shares of ChevronTexaco Corp. and ConocoPhillips, the second- and third-largest U.S. oil companies.
OPEC, which pumps more than a third of the world's oil, agreed last week to go ahead with a plan to raise the group's output ceiling by 500,000 barrels a day to 26 million barrels a day starting on Aug. 1.
``We're producing this critical commodity at 99 percent of capacity and that leaves almost no excess capacity'' for unexpected supply disruptions, Leeb said. Growing Asian economies are consuming oil ``like gangbusters. We're in a situation now where the steady supply of oil worldwide is not at all a sure thing.''
Inventory Reports
U.S. oil supplies rose 1.2 million barrels to 300.5 million in the week ended Friday, the Energy Department said. Analysts expected a 500,000 barrel decline, according to the median of responses in a Bloomberg survey. Stockpiles were up 8.4 percent from a year earlier. The Energy Department released the weekly report at 10:30 a.m. Washington time.
The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute said supplies rose by 3.1 million barrels in a report released at the same time.
U.S. imports have jumped as OPEC production has increased. Imports rose 14 percent to a record 11.3 million barrels a day. The U.S. consumes about a quarter of the world's oil.
Refineries operated at 97 percent of capacity last week, up 2.7 percentage points from the week before. It was the highest operating rate since the week ended May 30, 2003.
Record crude-oil prices have helped pull gasoline and heating-oil futures higher.
Gasoline for August delivery was up 3.47 cents, or 2.8 percent, at $1.279 a gallon in New York. Prices reached $1.47 on May 20, the highest since the contract began trading in 1984. Futures were 43 percent higher than a year earlier.
Heating oil for August delivery was up 1.06 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $1.133 a gallon in New York. Futures were 46 percent higher than a year earlier.
To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: July 28, 2004 11:56 EDT
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