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Oil Climbs to 3-Month High, Near $67, on Concern About Capacity

By Alejandro Barbajosa

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose, reaching a three- month high of almost $67 a barrel in New York, on concern world markets lack the spare capacity to cope with a disruption of exports from Iran, the world's fourth largest producer.

Speculation Iran may curb shipments in retaliation against possible United Nations sanctions have boosted prices 4.3 percent in the past two days. UN action tied to Iran's resumption of nuclear research might also limit investment that the Persian Gulf oil producer needs to increase output. The country supplies about 5 percent of the world's oil.

``There are lots of players out there who feel uncomfortable about the Iran situation because crude production capacity is still vulnerable,'' Tor Kartevold, an analyst at Statoil ASA, Norway's largest oil company, said from Stavanger, Norway. ``Low spare capacity and concern about supplies from Iran and Nigeria is a powerful combination.''

Crude oil for February delivery climbed as much as 62 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $66.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since Sept. 30. It was up 55 cents at 1 p.m. London time. Oil has almost doubled from two years ago, having slipped 5.6 percent from a record $70.85 on Aug. 30, a day after Hurricane Katrina slammed the Gulf of Mexico coast, crippling the U.S. oil industry.

Yesterday, New York oil jumped 3.7 percent to $66.31, the highest close since Sept. 29 and the biggest one-day gain since Sept. 19, when Hurricane Rita threatened the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast. The price also rose after unrest in Nigeria cut output.

Market `Tightness'

``Speculators are moving in such a direction that they are driving the short-term market'' higher, said Craig Pennington, head energy analyst at Schroders Investment Management Ltd. in London. Still, traders are ``genuinely concerned that oil will be taken off the market because of the tightness'' in capacity.

In Tokyo, oil futures rose to a record. Iran is the third- largest supplier of oil to Japan, where demand has been boosted by a cold winter.

Brent crude for March settlement added 39 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $65.29 a barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange, where the record is $68.89 on Aug. 30.

Iran produced 3.9 million barrels of crude oil a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, has 1.3 million barrels a day of spare production capacity.

The U.S., Britain and France want the UN Security Council to consider measures including sanctions over Iran's refusal to abandon nuclear research. Sanctions ``aren't the best and the only way to resolve'' the crisis, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday. Russia and China to date have blocked a more vigorous response by the UN to Iran, where both nations have commercial interests.

Attacks Threatened

Oil ``will remain elevated near $65 until the International Atomic Energy Agency decides whether the situation is sufficient that they should push it to the UN,'' said Mary Novak, managing director of energy services at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. ``China and Russia are saying that they don't want to push it up to the UN and they want the resolution to occur at the IAEA, so that is going to keep markets unsettled for at least another two to three weeks.''

Nigerian militants threatened further attacks on oil companies, Sky News reported yesterday. The African country's output is down 9 percent because of pipeline blasts and kidnappings. Nigeria was the fourth-biggest source of U.S. oil imports in October, the most recent month available.

``In the context of global oil supply, the loss of a significant amount of Nigerian crude oil is extremely worrying since much of the country's output is of light sweet crude that is in high demand by refiners seeking to maximize yield of light products, especially gasoline,'' Barclays Capital analysts led by Kevin Norrish in London, said in an e-mailed report.

Demand Growing

Shell's Nigerian venture shut its EA field, which has a capacity of 115,000 barrels a day, on Jan. 11 after four foreign oil workers were kidnapped from a boat near the field. It was also losing 106,000 barrels a day because of a Jan. 11 explosion at a pipeline in the Brass Creek area of the Niger River delta.

World oil demand will accelerate throughout 2006 as Chinese and U.S. consumption picks up, the International Energy Agency said. Demand will grow 2.2 percent to 85.1 million barrels a day, after gaining 1.3 percent last year, the agency, an adviser to 26 consuming nations, said yesterday in a monthly report.

Russian Cold Snap

Oil prices more than doubled in 1979 after a revolution in Iran slashed the nation's oil exports. By 1981, U.S. refiners were paying an average $35.24 a barrel, according to Energy Department figures, or $75.44 in 2005 dollars.

A cold snap in Russia may force OAO Gazprom, the world's biggest natural gas producer, to cut supplies to power plants in central and western Russia because of technical issues of transporting gas in low temperatures. That means the generators will have to use more expensive fuel oil to continue working.

U.S. crude oil inventories dropped in the last week of December and the first week of January, according to the Energy Department, which will publish its latest stockpile report tomorrow at 10:30 Washington time. That's a day later than normal because of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

Crude supplies were probably little changed, falling 100,000 barrels the week ended Jan. 13, according to the median of 10 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Gasoline inventories may have added 1.78 million barrels, while stockpiles of distillates, including heating oil, probably rose 2.35 million. Both categories of fuels increased in the previous two weeks.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alejandro Barbajosa in London at abarbajosa@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 18, 2006 08:47 EST