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Oil May Rise on Demand, Iran Sanctions, Survey Shows (Update1)

By Mark Shenk

March 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise next week because of surging U.S. fuel consumption and concern that new sanctions may be imposed on Iran, the world's fourth-biggest oil producer.

Sixteen of 40 analysts, traders and brokers, or 40 percent, said prices will increase, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Eleven expected a decline and 13 forecast little change. Last week, 44 percent of respondents said futures would gain.

Total U.S. fuel consumption in the past four weeks averaged 21.8 million barrels a day, a 7.5 increase from the same period last year, according to an Energy Department report on Feb. 28. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany have agreed to hold talks aimed at halting Iran's nuclear program.

Crude oil for April delivery rose 50 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $61.64 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, oil closed at $62 a barrel, the highest since Dec. 22.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of prices 53 percent of the time since it was introduced in April 2004.


     Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

                    RISE      NEUTRAL    FALL
                     16         13        11

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 2, 2007 15:32 EST

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