July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Oil may rise to a record next week, passing today's high, on concern producers don't have the spare capacity to meet global demand in the event of a cut in Russian shipments, a Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts showed.

Thirty-five of 53 survey respondents, or 66 percent, predicted the rally in New York crude oil futures will continue next week, the highest bullish percentage in the three months the survey has been conducted. Twelve respondents expected prices to fall and six said they'll be little changed.

Oil futures rose to $43.09 a barrel today, the highest price since the contract began trading in 1983. Prices reached a then- record $43.05 on Wednesday after OAO Yukos Oil Co., Russia's biggest oil exporter, said its shipments may be disrupted by a dispute with the government over tax payments.

``It looks like the crosshairs are zeroing in on $45,'' said Chuck Hackett, a broker and analyst at Access Futures & Options Trading in Woodlake, California. ``Name any oil-producing country and you can associate it with a particular problem that's contributing to higher prices.''

Crude oil for September delivery traded at $43.05 a barrel at 12:18 p.m. Singapore time. All futures have risen 40 percent in the past year.

Cash Crunch

Yukos may halt rail shipments because it couldn't get access to money to pay OAO Russian Railways beyond next week, Chief Executive Steven Theede said earlier this week. Russia's Justice Ministry recalled orders it had sent Yukos production units banning them from selling property while it seeks to collect a $3.4 billion tax bill, Yukos said yesterday. Yukos can also use cash in its accounts to pay suppliers, the Justice Ministry said.

``Fears of supply disruptions, especially the situation involving Yukos, will continue to drive the market,'' said Jason Schenker, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``There have consistently been concerns about supply this year. Now it's Yukos, which produces as much oil as the entire country of Libya.''

Russia has been the world's biggest oil producer so far this year, followed by Saudi Arabia, according to data from the International Energy Agency in Paris.

A week ago, 52 percent of poll respondents predicted rising prices. Crude oil for August delivery rose 2.5 percent to $42.75 on the New York Mercantile Exchange for the week through yesterday.

Norway, Nigeria

In addition to the potential loss of Yukos oil, prices have been bolstered by sabotage of pipelines in Iraq earlier this year and concern that escalating attacks in Saudi Arabia may lead to a disruption in shipments from the world's largest oil-exporting country. An election in Venezuela next month may threaten shipments from the fourth-biggest source of U.S. oil imports.

A weeklong strike by Norwegian oil workers in June forced producers to cut output by more than 10 percent. Norway is the world's third-largest exporter.

Strikes and sabotage have repeatedly disrupted shipments from Nigeria, Africa's largest producer and the fifth-biggest supplier of U.S. oil imports. Nigerian output has been rising and was the highest in at least six years in June, according to Bloomberg data.

Saudi Arabia has led a rise in output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which boosted official production quotas on July 1 and will do so again on Aug. 1. The extra OPEC production has made more oil available for U.S. refiners and helped boost inventories that were at a 28-year low in January.

Inventories

U.S. crude-oil inventories rose 1.2 million barrels to 300.5 million last week, the Energy Department said Wednesday. Imports jumped 14 percent to a record 11.3 million barrels a day. The U.S. consumes about a quarter of the world's oil.

Some analysts said that last week's inventory rise may lead to a decline in prices.

``The crude oil market is carrying both a hefty 42 percent price premium to a year ago and an 8.3 percent year-on-year Energy Department stock surplus,'' said Tim Evans, senior energy analyst for IFR Markets in New York.

Economic growth in Asia, the U.S. and Europe has spurred record demand for petroleum products. Consumption will rise by 2.49 million barrels a day this year, the International Energy Agency said earlier this month. The Paris-based adviser to 26 industrialized countries was founded in 1974 to represent the interests of oil-consuming nations.

Demand

``We had record imports last week and stocks only rose by about a million barrels,'' said Carl Larry, an associate director of energy futures at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. ``That's not a good omen,'' he said, because it suggests demand is surging.

The U.S. last year consumed 20.1 million barrels a day of crude oil, according to BP Plc's Annual Statistical Review of World Energy.

``We're still seeing a lot of energy demand out of China and the U.S. is quite strong too,'' said Ashok Sekar, head of client services at Tricom Futures Services Pty in Queensland, Australia. ``I don't see the market going much below $40.50 or maybe $39.50'' while this demand persists, he said.

U.S. gasoline demand jumped 5.3 percent to 9.3 million barrels a day last week, according to the Energy Department. About 10 percent of the world's oil is used to make gasoline for U.S. consumers.

Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. touched a record $2.064 a gallon in May. The U.S. average was $1.905 as of Monday, according to government data.

Refiners haven't kept up with growing demand for gasoline and other fuels in the U.S. No new refinery has been built in the U.S. since the 1970s. Refineries operated at 97 percent of capacity last week, the highest rate since May 2003.

``Any way you slice it, there are plenty of reasons for oil to move higher,'' Barclays' Larry said ``Demand is high, Iraqi production is down, we're unsure about Russian supplies and Venezuela is close to what should be an exciting election.''

     Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether New York
Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures are likely to rise, fall or
remain neutral in the coming week. This week's results were:
                     FALL       RISE       NEUTRAL
                      12         35          6

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: July 30, 2004 00:25 EDT