Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. dropped to a five-year low in New York trading as analysts predicted the firm would post its first loss since going public in 1999.

Goldman fell 8.5 percent to $71.21, the lowest value since April 2003, after Barclays PLC analyst Roger Freeman said the New York-based firm's fourth-quarter loss will probably be about $2.50 a share.

``We are making this cut now because of the dramatic equity- market declines, to which we believe Goldman Sachs is most exposed through its private-equity business,'' Freeman wrote in a note to clients today.

Barclays, which previously predicted profit of $2.71 a share, joined Merrill Lynch & Co., UBS AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley in estimating a loss for Goldman. The firm shed about 3,200 employees, or 10 percent of its workforce, last week after its shares lost two-thirds of their value since January. Goldman, once the biggest U.S. securities firm, is converting into a bank-holding company to weather the credit- market crisis.

Shares of the company lost $6.57 to $71.21 at 4:08 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, after reaching $68.51 earlier today. New York-based Morgan Stanley, which is also converting into a bank-holding company, fell $1.40, or 8.8 percent, to $14.58. The Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index declined 7 percent, and is down 62 percent this year.

Most major global stock indexes have dropped more than 25 percent this year, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index down 37 percent. The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook forecast last month that global growth will weaken to 3 percent in 2009, from 3.9 percent this year and 5 percent in 2007.

The U.S. jobless rate rose to the highest level since 1994 last month and payrolls dropped by 240,000 workers, signaling the economic slump may last well into next year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 10, 2008 16:09 EST