Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Irish Foreign Affairs Minister Brian Cowen is the frontrunner to be finance minister as Prime Minister Bertie Ahern overhauls his cabinet in a bid to restore voters' confidence, according to bookmakers in Dublin.

Paddy Power Plc, the country's largest bookmaker, is refusing to accept bets on Cowen, 44, taking over the ministry. In August, the bookmaker was offering odds of 1 to 20, meaning a $20 bet would yield winnings of $1 should he be appointed.

``Cowen is by far the most intelligent person in the cabinet,'' said Noel Whelan, a former Fianna Fail policy strategist and author of ``Politics, Election and the Law,'' a guide to Irish politics. ``He has already done some heavy lifting in economic ministries, in particular transport, where he started out. I think he'll do a good job.''

Ahern, 52, needs a new finance minister after Charlie McCreevy was named Europe's Single Market Commissioner last month. He is also seeking to win back support after his Fianna Fail party, which has led a coalition government with Progressive Democrats since 1997, scored its lowest since 1927 in June 11 local elections. He will announce the new cabinet on Sept. 29.

Support for Fianna Fail fell to 32 percent in the local government elections, a decline of 10 percentage points since the last general election. The government failed to fulfil a promise to eliminate hospital waiting lists and angered voters by raising charges for public services including waste disposal and approving price increases for electricity, gas and health insurance.

New Ministers

Ahern, who's been prime minister since June 1997, may also announce new ministers for portfolios including education, transport and enterprise to improve the government's standing with voters as he seeks to combat rivals including Fine Gael, the largest opposition party, and Sinn Fein, the political wing of the Irish Republican Party. Both gained votes in the June elections.

``He'll want to give a new image because they've been in government for a very long time,'' said Ivan Yates, a bookmaker and former member of parliament. ``He'll want to freshen it up. There'll be wholesale changes in portfolios.''

The government, which has 87 seats in the 166-seat Dail, as the Irish parliament is known, was in 2002 the first government to be re-elected since 1969. Elections to the national parliament will be held in 2007 at the latest.

McCreevy's Record

Born in Tullamore in the Irish midlands, Cowen studied law at University College Dublin and worked as a solicitor before he was elected to parliament for Fianna Fail in 1984 in a by-

As foreign affairs minister since January 2000, he has worked with Ahern on trying to restore the suspended Northern Ireland Assembly, which brought unionists and republicans together in an effort to end more than 30 years of conflict.

He also helped persuade the leaders of 25 European Union countries agree on a constitution during Ireland's EU presidency that ended June and win agreement on the appointment of Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Manuel Durao Barroso as the new European Commission president.

If appointed, Cowen will succeed McCreevy, voted Ireland's ``Best Ever Minister for Finance,'' in a poll this month of readers of Dublin's Finance magazine. During McCreevy's term, the country's corporate tax rate has dropped to 12.5 percent from 38 percent, and the tax on earnings from shares and real estate has halved to 20 percent.

Health Service

Anger about the health service played a role in June's election defeat, said Maev-Ann Wren, author of ``Unhealthy State - - Anatomy of a Sick Society.'' The government also raised charges for services including attendance at hospital emergency departments and health insurance.

One fifth of people seeking hip replacements or treatment for illnesses such as cataracts had been waiting for more than 12 months in the first quarter of 2004, according to government figures. Ahern promised during the election campaign in May 2002 that no patients would be waiting for treatment within two years.

More than one-third of the non-party candidates elected to Ireland's parliament two years ago campaigned on health issues including waiting-lists and services in hospitals outside cities.

``There was the crisis last winter in accident and emergency departments, with patients waiting on floors,'' Wren said. While the government increased health spending 180 percent since 1997, it did so into an ``unreformed hospital network,'' she said.

Accelerating Growth

Still, Ahern's political position may strengthen as economic growth accelerates from the slowest in a decade and the government collects more in tax revenue, allowing it to spend more on hospitals, schools and reduce the amount workers pay in tax. Economic growth may accelerate to 4.75 percent this year from 3.7 percent in 2003, the Central Bank forecast July.

Faster economic growth helped the government collect 21.5 billion in taxes in the eight months through August, 12 percent more than it forecast last December.

The government will have ``plenty of scope to reduce the tax burden on workers in the 2005 budget, or to significantly increase expenditure in key areas,'' said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Bloxham Stockbrokers in Dublin.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fergal O'Brien in Dublin at fobrien@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 27, 2004 05:13 EDT