Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- An avian influenza outbreak in humans may cost life insurance companies as much as $133 billion, a U.S.-based industry group estimated today as world leaders met in Beijing to discuss measures against a pandemic.

Expenses from death claims from a moderate flu outbreak may run as high as $31 billion, Insurance Information Institute economist Steven Weisbart wrote in a report on the group's Web site. By comparison, U.S. life insurers paid about $51 billion on individual and group policy claims in 2004, the report said.

Bird flu has spread from Southeast Asia to the fringe of Europe in recent weeks, heightening concerns that it may mutate into a form that can be passed from one person to the other. Such a virus may touch off a pandemic similar to the one that killed as many as 50 million people in 1918.

``We have no modern experience with vast health disasters,'' Weisbart wrote in the report on life insurers.

Scientists, government leaders and health experts are gathered in Beijing this week to discuss how to prevent a pandemic. As much as $1.5 billion is being sought from countries attending the conference.

Economic Impact

The SARS epidemic cost an estimated $800 billion to the world economy, said Andrew Vorkink, World Bank's Turkey director. If avian influenza was full blown to a global pandemic, it could costs ``hundreds of billions,'' he said in a phone interview from Ankara.

Bird flu outbreaks in Turkey won't hurt the country's economy because the effect is limited to the poultry industry, which accounts for less than 1 percent of the gross domestic product, Vorkink said. The tourism industry will be hurt if the spread of the virus in Turkey can't be stopped, since visitors are the country's second-biggest source of foreign currency behind textiles, he said.

Turkey's situation has ``galvanized people's attention,'' James Adams, vice president of operational policy at the World Bank, said in an interview today. ``If anything, people are going to commit a little larger funds than we are asking for.''

Tamiflu Donation

Bird flu has spread to more provinces of Turkey, where the health ministry today confirmed another case, bringing the total number of infected people to 21. Poultry outbreaks are confirmed in 13 of Turkey's 81 provinces and suspected outbreaks in 23 provinces are under investigation, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said today in a televised speech.

The H5N1 virus has killed at least 79 people of the 148 known to have been infected, according to the WHO.

Roche Holding AG is giving enough of its Tamiflu flu medication to the WHO to treat 2 million people in developing countries. Turkey has distributed 15,000 doses of the medicine and ordered another 100,000 doses, according to Erdogan.

The Swiss company said today it's giving 20 million doses of Tamiflu, which has shown it can fight the virus in animals, in addition to the 3 million treatments Roche donated in August. The WHO now has access to just over 5 million doses.

`Fire Blanket'

The August donation was ``meant as the fire blanket used to contain damage if we were receiving signals that we are moving into the beginning of a pandemic,'' Margaret Chan, the WHO's senior avian influenza coordinator, told reporters in Beijing. The latest one is intended for use in developing countries that may not be able to afford Tamiflu, Chan said.

The World Bank said in November it may give $500 million in loans and grants and try to get donations of another $500 million to help developing countries fight the disease.

The European Union today raised its promised contribution to 100 million euros ($121 million) from the 80 million euros pledged last week. The money will come from the centralized budget of the 25-nation EU and individual countries will further swell the figure, spokesman Philip Tod said in Brussels.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kristen Hallam in London at khallam@bloomberg.net; Jason Gale in Beijing at j.gale@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 17, 2006 11:01 EST