Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry shrank to 4 percentage points or less in five national polls released this week. Two state-by- state polls gave Kerry an edge in the electoral votes needed to win the election.

Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 45 percent in an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey and 46 percent to 42 percent in a Fox News poll. Polls conducted in individual states by American Research Group and Zogby International showed Kerry leading in the contest for states with the most electoral votes, apportioned based on Congressional representation, that the U.S. uses to pick the president.

The national results show a change from surveys after the Republican National Convention ended Sept. 2. Kerry trailed by as much as 11 percentage points in a Time magazine poll Sept. 7-9 and by 13 points in a CNN/USA Today poll Sept. 13-15. At this point in the 2000 race, Democrat Al Gore held a lead over Bush in polls taken by Newsweek and Bloomberg News. Bush took the lead after that year's presidential debates.

``It ain't over till it's over,'' said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macrolytics, an economics research and consulting company in Menlo Park, California. ``Gore blew himself up in the debates, and Bush could do the same thing to himself.''

The first of three presidential debates is scheduled for Sept. 30 in Coral Gables, Florida.

State Visits

The margin between Bush and Kerry 39 days before the election is reflected by the travels of the candidates as they fight for electoral votes in some of the smallest states, such as Maine and New Hampshire with four electoral votes each, and the larger ones, like Florida with 27 and Ohio with 20.

Bush, 58, yesterday made his third trip to Maine this year and his fourth trip to New Hampshire on Sept. 20. Kerry, 60, spent yesterday and the day before in Florida, his 16th and 17th days in the state this year. From there he went to Ohio, making his 25th stop there.

The U.S. presidency is decided by the Electoral College vote rather than the nationwide popular ballot. Each state is granted an electoral vote for each of their two senators and the number of population-based representatives in the U.S. House.

Forty-eight states award their electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes statewide. Maine and Nebraska each grant two to the statewide winner and one to the winner in each congressional district. Colorado is considering changing to a system that awards electoral votes proportionately to the share of the popular vote each candidate receives.

To win the nationwide election for president, a candidate must garner at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes.

More Important

``The national polls are interesting for a sense of directionality, but the individual state surveys are much more important,'' said James Lucier, a political analyst at Prudential Equity Group in Washington.

Zogby polls found Kerry leading in states with 264 electoral votes, Bush leading in states worth 241 and the two tied in Florida and Arkansas. Zogby says its Electoral College count assumes that the 30 states not among 20 so-called battlegrounds will go to the candidate of the party they backed in the 2000 election. On that basis, Bush starts with 142 and Kerry with 172. The poll was conducted over the Internet and the firm did not release the margin of error.

A review of state-by-state polls by Bloomberg News shows Bush ahead in 20 states, including Texas and Utah, with 163 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 10 states, including New York and Maryland, with 143 electoral votes. In 20 states that have 232 electoral votes, including Pennsylvania and Minnesota, results of the most recent polls are within the margin of error.

Tie in Florida

Florida also was tied in a poll conducted by the Gallup Organization for CNN and USA Today Sept. 18-22. Bush was the choice of 49 percent of 674 people deemed likely to vote and Kerry was backed by 46 percent. The poll's margin of error was 4 percentage points.

A Quinnipiac University poll of Florida voters, taken Sept. 18-21, showed Bush leading Kerry 49 percent to 41 percent with a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

In polls taken in all 50 states by Manchester, New Hampshire- based American Research Group, Kerry has leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with a total of 132 electoral votes, including California and New York. Bush has a clear lead in 17 states, including Texas and Kentucky, with a total of 133 electoral votes. Kerry also leads in Washington, D.C., which has three electoral votes.

In 23 states the gap is within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. American Research Group surveyed 600 adults identified as likely to vote on Election Day in each state over the period from Sept. 7 to 20.

Bush Gains

Bush gained in two of the battleground states that both campaigns have identified as key to the Nov. 2 election. A University of Cincinnati poll of 456 likely Ohio voters found Bush leading Kerry 54 percent to 43 percent. The poll has an error margin of 4.6 percent.

No Republican has ever been elected without carrying Ohio, which has 20 electoral votes. Bush won the state in 2000 by a margin of 3.6 percentage points over Gore. Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 44 percent in a Sept. 21-22 Fox News poll of 800 likely voters in Ohio. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

A Sept. 13-14 poll by Washington-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. for Knight-Ridder and MSNBC showed Bush leading 48 percent to 42 percent in Iowa. Bush also led in Arizona, Missouri and New Hampshire in Mason-Dixon polls. The surveys have a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

In New Jersey, Bush and Kerry are tied at 48 percent among 672 likely voters surveyed Sept. 16-19 by Quinnipiac. Kerry's lead among registered voters dwindled from 10 percentage points in August to a margin of 47 percent to 43 percent.

The poll of 943 registered voters has an error margin of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The error margin in the subset of likely voters is 3.8 percentage points.

Terrorism

In Washington State, which hasn't been won by a Republican in 20 years, Kerry leads Bush 51 percent to 42 percent, an Associated Press-Ipsos Public Affairs poll found. The poll, taken from Sept. 17-20, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Washington State has 11 electoral votes.

``Kerry has lost ground in part because the Republicans have made the election about the war on terrorism, and they have also succeeded in making the war in Iraq part of that broader fight,'' said Stu Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a Washington-based publication that analyzes political races. ``It remains to be seen whether this trend will hold through the election.''

In a nationwide Zogby telephone poll, Bush's strongest support is among those who say terrorism is their main concern. Those voters prefer Bush 75 percent to 19 percent.

Kerry and Bush were in a statistical tie for the presidency in the Zogby survey conducted Sept. 17-19 with Bush garnering 46 percent and Kerry 43 percent. The survey of 1,066 voters has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

Investors Business Daily

An Investor's Business Daily poll conducted Sept. 14-18 poll found a similar result. Among 650 likely voters, Bush had backing from 45 percent, compared with 42 percent for Kerry. The poll by Oradell, New Jersey-based TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics, has a margin of error of plus error margin was 3.4 percentage points.

Bush was ahead of Kerry by 49 percent to 45 percent in a survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for George Washington University Sept. 12-15. In an August poll, Kerry led Bush by 44 percent to 43 percent. The survey's error margin is 3.1 percentage points.

Bush was supported by 47 percent of 929 registered voters polled Sept. 20-22 by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, while Kerry was backed by 45 percent. That poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was supported by 3 percent, and 5 percent were undecided. Marist College is based in Poughkeepsie, New York.

Associated Press Poll

Two national polls, one conducted for the Associated Press by Ipsos-Public Affairs and the other by CBS News, give Bush bigger leads.

The AP poll gave Bush a 7 percentage point lead over Kerry. In the Sept. 20-22 poll Bush leads Kerry 52 percent to 45 percent among 931 likely voters polled. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

In the CBS poll, Bush led Kerry 49 percent to 41 percent among 931 registered voters polled Sept. 20-22. A CBS poll last week gave Bush a 9 percentage-point lead. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.

The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll put the race at 48 percent to Bush and 45 percent for Kerry. The poll also found that 55 percent of 1,006 registered voters surveyed said the country was worse off than it was four years ago and 58 percent said Bush should make ``major changes'' if he is elected to a second term.

The economy was the top concern for 28 percent of those surveyed, followed by 23 percent who cited terrorism and 20 who said the war in Iraq.

The Fox News poll found Bush supported by 46 percent of likely voters to Kerry's 42 percent. Forty-four percent said the believed Kerry would do a better job on the economy, compared with 43 percent who said Bush would. A majority, 51 percent, said Bush would do a better job handling the war on terrorism and 36 percent said Kerry.

The poll was conducted Sept. 21-22 and has an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Westbrook in Washington at jwestbrook1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 24, 2004 12:06 EDT