Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Crude-oil futures were little changed after plunging 6.5 percent yesterday amid speculation higher-than- normal temperatures in the U.S. will reduce heating-oil demand.

Heating consumption in the U.S. Northeast, where 80 percent of the country's home heating oil is consumed, will be 21 percent below normal in the period from Dec. 28 to Jan. 3, forecaster Weather Derivatives Inc. of Belton, Missouri, said.

``It's been pretty warm, especially in the Northeast,'' said Mike Armbruster, co-founder of Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Laguna Hills, California. ``We're going to break $40.''

Crude oil for February delivery gained 18 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $41.50 at 11:17 a.m. London time. Earlier, in after- hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, oil fell as low as $41 for the first time in two weeks.

Yesterday, the February contract fell $2.86, the biggest one- day fall in the front-month oil contract since Dec. 1, after the three-day Christmas break passed without disruption to oil supplies and weather forecasts reduced expectations for heating demand. Temperatures will be above normal from Jan. 1 to Jan. 5 in the eastern U.S., the National Weather Service said yesterday.

Unseasonably warm weather and an further gains in U.S. crude and heating oil supplies could keep prices from gaining in the near future, analysts said. Prices have averaged $41.45 this year, the highest in 21 years of New York trading.

``For the medium-term, we are relatively bearish,'' said Stany Schrans, head of energy trading at Fortis Bank NV in Brussels. ``We are way above the levels where we used to be historically and the market has been looking for direction.''

Analysts Divided

Reduced demand may have boosted U.S. crude oil stockpiles last week for the 13th week in 14, according to three out of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

A report last week showed U.S. oil supplies unexpectedly jumped by 2.1 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 17 to 295.9 million barrels, 7.8 percent higher than a year earlier. Supplies of distillate, which include heating oil and diesel, rose for a fifth straight week.

Analysts are divided on what the U.S. Energy Department's report, scheduled for tomorrow, will show. Four out of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said they expected a fall in oil supplies, with the median forecast being a 600,000-barrel reduction. Estimates range from a 2 million-barrel increase to a 2 million-barrel decline.

Estimates for distillates are for a 600,000-barrel reduction, according to a survey of seven analysts.

Global oil demand will increase by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2005, according to the International Energy Agency. Demand has surged or 3.4 percent to 82.4 million barrels a day this year, the biggest increase since 1976, the agency said on Dec. 10.

Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company by output, will boost capacity by 14 percent by the end of the decade to 12 million barrels a day, Abdallah S. Jum'ah, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, said in an interview today at the company headquarters in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed in Cairo on Dec. 10 to cut output by 1 million barrels a day to adhere more closely to its 27 million barrel-a-day quota.

Last Updated: December 28, 2004 06:58 EST