Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing growth in the dozen nations sharing the euro probably slowed last month as higher oil prices and the euro's rise to a record against the dollar crimped exports, a survey of economists showed.

An index based on a survey of about 3,000 purchasing managers compiled by NTC Research Ltd. for London-based Reuters Group Plc probably declined to 52 in November from 52.4 in the previous month, according to the median of 39 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey. A reading above 50 shows expansion. NTC Research is scheduled to release its report at 9 a.m. today in London.

The export-led recovery of the euro region's economy from last year's contraction is faltering as the currency's 10 percent rally against the dollar in the past three months makes sales abroad more expensive and higher oil prices boost companies' costs. French business and consumer confidence fell in November and DaimlerChrysler AG, the world's fifth-largest carmaker, said last week the stronger euro will hurt profit.

``The euro is hurting exports, that's for sure,'' said Lothar Hessler, an economist at HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt KGaA in Dusseldorf. ``The financing conditions are there for a pick up in investment, but with the euro over $1.30 the question is whether people will do that. I'm sceptical.''

Euro Record

The euro's appreciation, which pushed it to a record $1.3335 against the dollar yesterday, is hurting exporters' ability to benefit from a slowing global economy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development yesterday trimmed its prediction for euro-region growth in 2005 to 1.9 percent from the 2.4 percent it forecast in May. The euro was trading at $1.3254 at 6 p.m. in Frankfurt.

The OECD cut its 2005 global growth forecast to 2.9 percent from 3.3 percent as a 62 percent appreciation in the price of oil in the past year hurt global trade and left consumers with less money to spend on other things. Oil was worth $49.76 a barrel in New York yesterday after rising as high as $55.67 in October.

TUI AG, Europe's largest travel company, is levying a fuel surcharge on package vacations from today and Henkel KGaA, the German maker of Persil detergent, said Nov. 25 that the oil price may hurt profit next year if it stays at the current level.

With the oil price threatening to keep inflation above the European Central Bank's 2 percent ceiling, President Jean-Claude Trichet has limited scope to shore up the euro region's economy by cutting rates. The ECB will keep its benchmark lending rate at a six-decade low of 2 percent tomorrow, according to all 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Interest Rates Unchanged

Trichet may also struggle to rein in the euro's rally as U.S. policy makers signal little support for helping out the ECB. While Trichet has been trying to cool the euro's appreciation by warning investors against ``brutal'' currency shifts, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said in London on Nov. 17 that exchange rates are best set by markets.

``The outlook for economic activity, both globally and domestically, continues to be surrounded by uncertainties,'' Trichet said yesterday at the European Parliament in Brussels. The outlook for growth and inflation hasn't ``led us to think that it is right to change our monetary policy.''

A build-up in inventories, negative net exports and sluggish consumer spending were behind the slowdown in growth to 0.3 percent in the third quarter, the slackest pace in more than a year, Trichet said.

Reports on German retail sales and euro-region unemployment today may add to evidence the economy of the countries using the currency is slowing.

Retail sales in Europe's largest economy were probably unchanged in October from the previous month, the third month in four they failed to rise, according to the median forecast of 20 economists in a Bloomberg survey. German unemployment may have risen for a 10th month in November, the median of 39 forecasts in a separate survey showed.

To contact the reporter of this story: John Fraher in Frankfurt jfraher@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 30, 2004 19:07 EST