April 28 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush closes out the first 100 days of his second term this weekend with his ambitious agenda weighted down by political diversions and by public and partisan opposition to his signature issue.

Bush laid out a program at the start of the year more typical in sweep of a first presidential term: overhauling the 70- year-old Social Security retirement-income program, rewriting the U.S. tax code, revamping immigration and energy policies and expanding democracy in the Middle East and elsewhere.

He faces instead a Democratic minority in Congress refusing to budge on Social Security, while his own Republican Party is distracted by ethics allegations against House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, by a Senate fight over confirming judges and by their own re-election prospects next year. Meanwhile, polls show the public is focused on rising gasoline prices and worries about the economy.

``He has made a very serious error in terms of his understanding of what is do-able,'' said Stephen Hess, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, who was an adviser in the Eisenhower and Nixon administrations. ``He has been uniquely distracted by the Social Security fight in such a way that he hasn't paid attention to some awfully important Main Street issues.''

Bush will hold a press conference at 8:30 p.m. Washington time to talk about his Social Security and energy plans, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said. The president plans to talk about specific solutions for future funding shortfalls in the retirement-insurance program and what the government can do about gasoline prices, McClellan said.

Congressional Victories

In his first term, Bush had a higher proportion of his proposals passed by Congress than any president since Lyndon Johnson. His biggest obstacle now may be the battle over his plan to add personal investment accounts to the Social Security system. Bush made it his top domestic priority and embarked on a 60-day campaign to sell it to voters. Voters are telling pollsters they aren't buying.

National polls show Bush's support on Social Security has declined since he began promoting the plan. The most recent Gallup Organization survey, conducted April 18-21, found 37 percent of adults named fuel prices or economic concerns as the most important issues facing the country, compared with 7 percent who cited Social Security. In a Zogby International poll released April 26, 53 percent disapproved of Bush's handling of the presidency and 64 percent said they disapproved of how he's dealing with Social Security.

Held Hostage

``The perception right now is that everything is held hostage by Social Security,'' said Bruce Buchanan, a presidential scholar at the University of Texas and author of six books on the presidency. ``It will be a serious setback if he crashes and burns on this issue.''

To be sure, Bush has been able to score victories in Congress, which came out of the November elections with a wider Republican majority.

In February, Congress passed legislation Bush sought to limit class-action lawsuits against companies by moving them from state to federal courts. Lawmakers also tightened the rules for consumers who file for bankruptcy.

With Congress hearing from voters about gasoline prices, which are 23 percent higher than a year ago, Bush may finally get action on energy legislation, which has been bottled up by Senate Democrats for the past four years. Bush offered five new initiatives on energy in a speech yesterday in Washington.

Energy

``If you look at the high price of gas, and the fact that he's narrowly lost on energy bills before, you can see him getting an energy bill through Congress,'' said Evans Witt, president of Princeton Survey Research in New Jersey, a nonpartisan polling firm.

Bush's advisers say he is making progress on his agenda, particularly Social Security. In his speeches, Bush says that until this year presidents and Congress have been reluctant to consider anything more than minor adjustments to the program. Now, all ideas for dealing with future funding and sweeping restructuring are ``on the table,'' he says.

``We're making headway,'' White House Communications Director Nicolle Devenish said. ``The president has been trying to convince people there is a problem, and we're seeing that they understand that.''

His allies in Congress urge patience. ``It's probably going to take more time than what most people in this town have the patience for,'' Senator Rick Santorum, a Pennsylvania Republican, said of Bush's Social Security proposal. ``We're in the first inning of the game.''

Unified Opposition

Bush faces a unified Democratic opposition on the issue, while cracks are forming in the Republican majority. At the Senate Finance Committee's hearing on Social Security April 26 Republican Senators Olympia Snowe of Maine and Craig Thomas of Wyoming joined Democrats in raising questions about Bush's proposal for personal accounts.

``Increasingly, there is a sense that we don't have to do anything now, and certainly not on the president's terms,'' said Democratic consultant Joel Johnson, who advised both former President Bill Clinton and Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, last year's Democratic presidential nominee.

The same dynamic has stymied Bush on his nomination of Undersecretary of State John Bolton to be the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Democrats on the Foreign Relations Committee, led by Senators Joseph Biden of Delaware and Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, held firm on their objections to Bolton over how he dealt with intelligence analysts who dissented from his views. Republicans have agreed to delay action until May 12 while the allegations against Bolton are investigated further.

Judicial Nominations

Democratic leaders say they are ready to continue waging a similar battle with the president on judicial nominations. The Democrats are holding up action on several of Bush's candidates, and have threatened to use parliamentary tactics to tie up the Senate if Republicans try to change the rules to move the nominations forward.

Pollsters say Bush needs progress on Social Security to ensure success for the rest of his agenda. ``He put his prestige on the line and has been out there pounding away on Social Security, and it hasn't worked, at least not yet,'' Witt said. ``If he doesn't get a win, it hampers him going forward.''

In the House, where Republicans have firmer control with a 29-seat majority, Bush's allies have been distracted from their legislative calendar by the ethics questions surrounding DeLay, a Texas Republican who was admonished three times last year by the chamber's ethics panel.

Alternate Strategy

An alternate strategy for Bush is to continue his focus on foreign policy. Developments abroad -- particularly in the Middle East -- provide Bush the chance of success that could help build momentum for his domestic agenda. They also hold potential for more distraction.

Iraqis went to the polls in January, and the government is drafting a constitution, though there has been an increase in attacks by insurgents after a brief lull following the election. Syria has withdrawn its troops from Lebanon and Egypt moving closer to multiparty elections.

``Those things are not terribly meaningful for the public, judging from the number of people who think things are going well in Iraq,'' said Fred Greenstein, a Princeton University presidential scholar. ``But he can certainly talk them up. At the least, these are issues that could affect his legacy.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Richard Keil in Washington at dkeil@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 28, 2005 00:17 EDT