By Bill Koenig
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co., reeling under $1.44 billion in first-half losses, probably will report a third straight unprofitable quarter next week as truck sales shrink and the cost of shedding jobs increases.
Ford, the world's third-largest automaker, may post a third-quarter loss of 72 cents a share, excluding one-time expenses, according to Citigroup analyst Jon Rogers, one of five Ford analysts rated as most accurate by StarMine Corp. On that basis, Ford had a year-ago loss of 10 cents a share.
Ford's earnings announcement, due Oct. 23, will be the first since the company accelerated its job-cutting last month, and the first since Boeing Co. executive Alan Mulally succeeded William Ford Jr. as chief executive officer, also last month. Mulally hasn't said what he will do differently from Bill Ford, who led two failed restructuring efforts in five years.
While it's too early for Mulally to have made his mark, ``what people will be looking for is a sense that somebody is in charge, that there's a sense of credibility in that person,'' said James Brock, professor of economics at the Farmer School of Business at Miami University in Ohio.
Mulally, 61, has already signaled one difference from his predecessor, saying in advance that he plans to take part in the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker's conference call to discuss the results. In the past, Ford advisories didn't typically say whether Bill Ford, 49, would participate.
`Extraordinarily Weak'
Mulally isn't likely to convey any short-term optimism. Ford's third- and fourth-quarter earnings reports probably will be ``extraordinarily weak,'' Bear Stearns analyst Peter Nesvold wrote on Oct. 4. ``We remain apprehensive about owning Ford.''
Mulally declined to be interviewed for this article. ``We have some very big decisions to make about what kind of business we need to become,'' Mulally said in an Oct. 13 e-mail to employees.
Ford's problems are centered in its largest market, North America, where it may have lost money for the eighth time in nine quarters in the period just ended. In July, Toyota Motor Corp. passed Ford in monthly U.S. sales for the first time. In Canada, where Ford has perennially ranked No. 2 behind General Motors Corp., the automaker slipped to fifth last month.
Ford's U.S. auto sales dropped 17 percent in the quarter, with an even steeper slide for large pickup trucks and sport- utility vehicles, among its most-profitable vehicles. F-Series truck sales fell 25 percent, while sales of the Explorer sport- utility vehicle dropped 23 percent.
Trimming Production
Because of the sales slump, Ford said in August it would trim production by 21 percent in the fourth quarter, the biggest reduction in more than two decades. The cuts will temporarily idle 10 North American factories, including four that produce F- Series pickups.
On average, analysts estimate that Ford lost 56 cents a share in the third quarter, according to a Thomson Financial survey of 15 analysts. Their estimates range from a loss of 22 cents to a loss of 85 cents. Thomson doesn't disclose what costs or other items its figures include. Ford stopped giving forecasts in January.
None of 17 analysts rating Ford recommends the stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Ten of them rate the company a ``sell,'' and seven others call it a ``hold.''
Ford shares reached a 14-year closing low of $6.19 on July 20. They fell 2 cents to $8.01 at 4:02 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading and are up 3.7 percent for the year.
Cost of Buyouts
Investors will be watching Ford's earnings report for the cost of its job-cutting effort. A $660 million charge for buyouts led to a surprise $254 million loss for the second quarter.
Ford in the third quarter announced plans to shed 10,000 more North American salaried jobs by the end of 2007's first quarter, on top of 4,000 cuts earlier this year. Ford also said it will slash 30,000 factory jobs by the end of 2008 instead of 2012 and accelerate previously announced plant closings.
As a result, Ford said on Sept. 15 that spending on job cuts will be ``significantly increased'' beyond its previous $3.8 billion estimate for 2006.
The company also set back its goal of reaching a profit in North America by a year, until 2009. It said its U.S. market share would fall again this year, its 11th straight annual decline. Toyota's share of the U.S. market rose by 3.1 percentage points in September to a record 16.5 percent.
Ford's 7.45 percent bond due July 2031 was unchanged at 76.6 cents on the dollar, according to Trace, the NASD's bond- price reporting service. The yield was unchanged at 10.02 percent.
Swaps Verdict
Traders who bet on the creditworthiness of Ford in the credit-default swap market are showing little confidence in the company's moves to stem losses.
The perceived risk of owning bonds sold by Ford has risen 4.7 percent since Sept. 5, the day Ford announced Mulally's appointment, according to credit-default swap data compiled by Bloomberg. Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on corporate bonds and loans that are used to speculate on an increase or decrease in creditworthiness.
Last month, Standard & Poor's cut Ford's credit rating further into non-investment grade, to B from B+, because of the ``the seemingly relentless deterioration'' in its North American operations.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Koenig in Southfield, Michigan, at wkoenig@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 20, 2006 16:29 EDT
HOME
