By Choy Leng Yeong
May 30 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may climb for a second week on speculation rising energy costs will fuel inflation, boosting the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment.
Seventeen of 37 traders, investors and analysts surveyed May 26 and May 27 advised buying gold, which rose 0.5 percent last week to $422.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Eleven recommended selling the metal, and nine were neutral.
Crude oil surged 6.6 percent last week to above $51 a barrel, helping gold post its first weekly gain in four. As gasoline prices approached the highest ever, a record 37.2 million Americans still plan to travel 50 miles (80 kilometers) or more from home this weekend for the Memorial Day holiday, according to AAA, the biggest U.S. travel organization.
``The fact that oil prices have started to rise will put inflationary pressure on the economy,'' which ``should be pretty good for gold,'' said Stephen Leeb, president of New York-based Leeb Capital Management, which oversees $115 million with about 4 percent in gold equities.
Gold for August delivery gained $2.20 an ounce last week, surprising the majority of analysts who expected a decline, according to a survey on May 19 and May 20. Gold is up 6.6 percent from a year ago.
Bloomberg's survey has forecast the direction of prices accurately in 32 of 57 weeks, or 56 percent of the time. A futures contract is an obligation to sell or buy a commodity at a set price by a specific date.
``Undervalued''
Crude-oil prices may extend gains this week as U.S. refiners increase processing to boost gasoline stockpiles for the peak- demand summer season, a separate Bloomberg survey showed. Oil has gained 31 percent in the past year and reached a record $58.28 a barrel on April 4.
``I expect energy prices to move higher, especially as we head into the busiest driving season of the year,'' said John Licata, an independent analyst in New York. Investors will ``look to enter undervalued markets like gold and silver,'' he said.
Some investors buy gold in times of inflation, which erodes the value of fixed-income assets, such as bonds. Gold reached a 16-year high of $458.70 an ounce on Dec. 2 as U.S. consumer prices rose 3.3 percent in 2004, the most in four years.
``Gold is cheap and undervalued,'' said James Turk, founder of Channel Islands-based Goldmoney.com, which stores about $48 million of gold for owners in 102 countries. ``The expectations that oil is going lower are simply unrealistic.''
Turk and Leeb Capital Management's Leeb said gold will rally to $500 an ounce this year.
EU Referendum
Gold sold in dollars fell to a three-month low of $416.20 an ounce on May 24 as the euro slumped toward a seven-month low against the dollar. The euro declined partly on concern many French voters oppose the European Union constitution, according to polls before today's referendum.
After the French vote, a referendum will be held in the Netherlands on June 1, and votes are scheduled in the U.K., the Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal and Poland.
``The possibility of the referendum on the European constitution resulting in a `no' vote and possibly throwing the euro-region into major disagreement is already being factored'' in, Licata, the independent analyst, said. ``If any resolution is made on any front, the dollar will give back some recent gains, and that is bullish for gold prices.''
Gold gained on May 5 after Standard & Poor's cut its credit ratings on General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. to below investment grade. The ratings cuts came after GM reported its worst quarterly loss in 13 years.
Debt Ratings `Unraveling'
``The continued unraveling of corporate debt ratings such as Ford and GM, as well as major pension concerns and failures, doesn't support the strong dollar that we are currently seeing,'' Licata said. ``It should cause investors to consider buying gold more than ever.''
Some of the biggest U.S. carriers such as US Airways Group Inc. and United Airlines have moved to cancel pensions as the industry posted combined losses of $33 billion in the past four years.
Higher oil prices have contributed to a widening U.S. trade gap. A broader deficit raises concerns that more dollars will have to be converted to other currencies to pay for imports.
Gold reached its December high partly because the dollar tumbled to the lowest ever against the euro amid a record $617.7 billion U.S. trade deficit last year.
``With the structural imbalances in the U.S., the dollar is far from an attractive alternative,'' said Gregory Orrell, who manages $100 million at Orrell Capital Management Inc. in Livermore, California.
To contact the reporter on this story: Choy Leng Yeong in Seattle at clyeong@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: May 29, 2005 14:00 EDT
HOME
