Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- George W. Bush will go into the first of three presidential debates on Thursday with almost all the advantages over Democratic nominee John Kerry.

Bush's negotiating team arranged for the first debate in Miami to focus on foreign policy, a strength for Bush according to a Sept. 11-13 Pew Research Center poll. The same survey found voters consider Bush, 58, a stronger leader and more likeable.

``It's Bush's to lose,'' said Allan Louden, a professor at Wake Forest University in North Carolina who coached Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole in campaign rhetoric. ``He just has to look presidential. Kerry has to look presidential and attack within some kind of boundary of what people find acceptable.''

Scholars including Alan Schroeder, author of ``Televised Presidential Debates: 40 Years of High-Risk TV,'' say the first debate is the most important. It usually draws the most viewers and has the most weight with voters.

Almost 47 million people watched the first debate between Bush and Al Gore in 2000, according to the Commission on Presidential Debates. Almost 81 million tuned in to see Republican Ronald Reagan debate President Jimmy Carter in 1980. By contrast, 28 million watched Bush's nomination acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention Sept. 2; 24 million caught Kerry's in July, Nielsen Media Research said.

`Emotional Connection'

``What seems to work are candidates who are able to couch the messages in the form of stories,'' Schroeder said. ``It's a television show and not just another political event. You're trying to make an emotional connection to the viewers.''

In a Sept. 21-23 Time magazine poll, 69 percent of undecided voters said the debates may decide their vote and 24 percent of Bush or Kerry supporters said the face-offs may cause them to change their allegiance. Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 42 percent overall among 877 likely voters in the Time poll.

Kerry, a four-term Massachusetts senator, sometimes rambles in his speeches and fails to end on a high note. A campaign rally inside the fairgrounds of Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Sept. 10 illustrated that tendency.

Kerry told the story of two brothers from the St. Louis suburbs, one 6 and the other 9, who presented him with a donation of $675 they raised by making and selling bracelets. He also told about the time he stopped his campaign train at about midnight when he saw a sign at a rail depot that said: ``If you give us eight minutes, we'll give you eight years.''

Instead of ending the rally as the crowd cheered, Kerry went on for another 12 minutes reviewing his policy proposals.

Getting Applause

Bush fills his speeches with tested lines that draw cheers. Under attack by Kerry for his handling of the war in Iraq, Bush told supporters at an event in Parkersburg, West Virginia, on Sept. 5 that he saw the decision to invade Iraq and remove Saddam Hussein as a choice between trusting a ``madman'' or protecting America.

``Given that choice, I will defend America every time,'' Bush said. The crowd roared for about half a minute.

Bush saved another applause line for the end of the speech, when he told about his visit to New York City on Sept. 14, 2001, after the terrorist attacks.

``A guy grabbed me by the arm and said, `Do not let me down,''' Bush said. ``Ever since that day, I wake up every morning thinking about how to better protect our country. I will never relent in defending America, whatever it takes.''

When the applause ended, Bush thanked the crowd for coming and ended his remarks.

Changing Minds

Debates ``can change a lot of minds in close races,'' said Diana Carlin, a University of Kansas professor who has studied presidential debates for 20 years. ``In the past, about 6 percent of people on average say they switched to one candidate or the other or moved to undecided after the first debate.''

The Commission on Presidential Debates originally planned for the first debate to center on domestic policy, an area in which Kerry holds an advantage in polls. Kerry's advisers say the new topic gives him a chance to hammer Bush on Iraq, a topic Kerry has focused on this month.

``All you guys would instantly say foreign policy is presumed to be the strength of the president,'' Kerry adviser Mike McCurry told reporters Sept. 23. ``Then they see Senator Kerry making a very strong and passionate argument about what we need to be doing, then they begin to measure side by side these two as potential commanders in chief.''

The president will take advantage of Kerry's Senate voting record and past statements, said Bush adviser Karen Hughes. Kerry, 60, voted to give Bush authorization to use force in Iraq and voted against an $87 billion funding package for the war because he wanted to roll back Bush's tax cuts to pay for it. Bush uses those votes as evidence of ``flip-flops'' by Kerry.

Gore in 2000

``The president will make his case clearly,'' Hughes told reporters Sept. 22. ``That's a problem for Senator Kerry.''

Debates resonate the most when something happens that reinforces or debunks a widely held view, Wake Forest's Louden said. In 1984, Reagan, then 73, faced questions about his age in his second debate against Democrat Walter Mondale, who was 56 at the time. Reagan joked that he wouldn't exploit his opponent's ``youth and inexperience.''

``That was funny in itself,'' Louden said. ``That worked because that had been the story. That just stopped Mondale's momentum in the blocks and the race was over.''

In 2000, Gore lost his lead in national polls after a debate performance in which he rolled his eyes and sighed while Bush was answering questions. Those gestures made Gore seem condescending and overshadowed other parts of the debate. The agreement between the campaigns this time specifies no camera views of the candidate who isn't speaking.

`Undresses Him'

``Many of us thought, when we walked out, we won,'' said Donna Brazile, Gore's campaign manager. ``Forty-eight hours later, it was a net negative. It took us days to get out of the political hole that we dug ourselves.''

Both sides have been portraying the other candidate as a skilled debater. Kerry joked to David Letterman last week that part of his job in the appearance on Letterman's talk show was to ``lower expectations.'' Hughes said Kerry has ``spent a lifetime preparing for debates and engaging in debates.''

Kerry won re-election to a third term as a Massachusetts senator after a series of debates against Massachusetts Governor William Weld in 1996.

``Go get the tape of the eight debates with Weld,'' Karl Rove, a senior adviser to Bush, told the Washington Times Sept. 22. ``I like Weld a lot. He has a very sharp mind -- quick on his feet, nimble. And Kerry just undresses him eight times in a row.''

Brazile and Chris Lehane, another Gore adviser, say Bush's occasional verbal gaffes mask his skills in speaking plainly and winning debates.

Time Limit

``The history of Bush is he has consistently surprised people by how well he has debated,'' Lehane said. ``Most voters are looking at these things the same way they watch `Friends,' not the way that one would watch a Harvard-Yale Society debate. They are looking to see who connects with them as a person.''

Jim Lehrer, anchor of PBS's ``The NewsHour,'' is scheduled to moderate the first debate. In a 32-page memorandum the two campaigns specified that lights will start flashing if either candidate goes over two minutes allotted for answers.

The time limit may help Kerry, said David Steinberg, director of debate at the University of Miami. ``The longer he answers, the more complex his answers would tend to be,'' Steinberg said. ``It will force him to be to the point and be concise.''

Both Bush and Kerry are spending most of this week preparing for the debate. Kerry is in Wisconsin, a state both sides say may be one of the closest contests on Nov. 2, and Bush is at his ranch in Crawford, Texas.

``The candidates want to be as safe as possible,'' Carlin said. ``They go to extremes to prepare for these things, trying to anticipate everything and they go after opponent, trying to catch them off guard and attack their weaknesses.''

The next scheduled joint appearance for Bush and Kerry, on Oct. 8, will be a ``town hall'' meeting in St. Louis at which they will take questions from the audience. A final debate on domestic policy will take place Oct. 13 in Tempe, Arizona.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kristin Jensen in Washington at kjensen@Bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 27, 2004 00:18 EDT