By Halia Pavliva
Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil, Russia, India and China, the so-called BRIC nations, may coordinate measures to offset the effects of the financial crisis, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said.
Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 are meeting in Sao Paulo this weekend to lay the groundwork for a Nov. 15 heads of state summit in Washington.
``Finance ministers of BRIC countries have worked out measures for the near future,'' Kudrin said today in an interview in Sao Paulo. ``We have agreed that we can jointly increase trade and capital flows. The major thing is that we are prepared to coordinate.''
While the world's biggest economies, including the U.S. and European Union, will likely contract next year, the BRIC countries are set to expand, he said.
``The bottom has not been reached yet,'' Kudrin said, referring to the credit crunch in developed countries.
Russian growth will probably slow to about 3.5 percent in 2009 from less than 5.5 percent expected earlier, Kudrin said. Inflation will be 13 percent in 2008 and ``up to'' 8 percent in 2009, he said.
Kudrin said the IMF's forecast of 3.5 percent growth next year is about right.
``The IMF takes into account oil price trend, which is significant for our country. The growth rate, however, will also depend on the government actions we take to overcome the crisis,'' he said.
`Huge Uncertainty'
The government will complete its GDP forecast by the end of November or in early December, Kudrin said, adding that there is still ``huge uncertainty'' on whether Russia will face a current account deficit later this year.
Kudrin said the price for the country's oil, called Urals, will average about $50 a barrel next year, down from a forecast of $95 a barrel a month ago. The average price will climb to $55 in 2010, he said.
``If oil price really declines to $50 a barrel next year, then we will have a current-account deficit in 2009,'' he said.
Declining oil prices may also affect the ruble, Kudrin signaled.
``Oil prices will have an impact over it and, because of that, the current account, and the capital account as well. All these factors will have an impact on the exchange rate policy,'' he said. ``It's the central bank that normally comments on the exchange rate and we don't want to interfere with this independent role.''
Currency Band
Russia may ``gradually'' widen the central bank's ruble trading band versus the central bank's dollar-euro basket if the $91.2 billion surplus moves to negative next year for a ``prolonged'' period, Arkady Dvorkovich, President Dmitry Medvedev's economic adviser, said in Moscow on Nov.7.
Bank Rossii, the country's central bank, sold a net $43 billion of dollars and euros in October, as investors withdrew cash from the country amid the nation's worst financial crisis since its $40 billion debt default in 1998. Reserves, the world's third-biggest, declined $2.4 billion to a revised $487 billion last week, the central bank said yesterday.
To contact the reporter on this story: Halia Pavliva in New York at hpavliva@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 8, 2008 15:45 EST
HOME
