By Janine Zacharia and Richard Keil
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- An internal U.S. government poll found a majority of Iraqis oppose having the U.S.-led multinational force in their country and feel less safe when foreign troops are patrolling their neighborhoods.
A majority of Iraqis also says the coalition should stay at least until a permanent government is elected, indicating they are as conflicted and contradictory in their attitudes toward the U.S. presence as the American public is. The poll suggests the insurgency is unpopular, despite pockets of support in places such as Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit.
The survey, conducted March 15-22 in 15 cities across all regions of Iraq, has been distributed to top officials at the Pentagon, the Central Intelligence Agency and State Department. A copy was obtained by Bloomberg News.
Professional pollsters cautioned about the reliability of data from people living in an area where the security situation is unstable. ``The problem you have in conducting surveys there is doing face-to-face interviews in places where it is dangerous to go outside is inherently difficult,'' said Evans Witt, president of Princeton Survey Research, a polling group that conducts surveys in the U.S. and abroad. The company was not involved in the Iraq poll.
The poll is the fourth conducted since October 2004 by the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research. The bureau distributed an 11-page report of analysis and data titled ``Iraqis Sense Improved Security.''
White House Reaction
White House spokesman Scott McClellan said he had not seen he poll, though the administration didn't question its findings. ``The Iraqi people want to assume full responsibility for their own defense, and that is what we are helping them prepare to do,'' he said.
While the poll had some positive signs for U.S. policy makers, opposition to the U.S. presence was strong everywhere except the Kurdish north. That area, long oppressed by Hussein's regime, gained some autonomy under the protection of U.S. air forces after the 1991 Persian Gulf war. In the Shiite-dominated south, 52 percent said they strongly opposed the coalition, and 68 percent in Baghdad felt the same way.
The survey also shows that, everywhere except the Kurdish region, majorities ranging from 53 percent in and around Kirkuk to 90 percent in the Sunni cities of Tikrit and Baquba believe the U.S.-led forces will not ``improve the situation in Iraq.''
There is a growing belief among Iraqis that their own army and police forces will improve the situation in the country and that security has gotten better, according to the poll results.
Turning Over Security
In a nationally televised June 28 speech aimed at reassuring the U.S. public about his policy in Iraq, President George W. Bush said his administration's goal is to train enough Iraqis to take over from U.S. and coalition troops. ``As the Iraqis stand up, we will stand down,'' Bush told an audience of soldiers at Fort Bragg, North Carolina.
The survey highlights the positive feelings of Iraqis toward their own forces and the negative views of coalition troops.
``Most Iraqis have confidence in the Iraqi Police, Army, and National Guard, and Iraqis say they feel safer when these forces are present in their neighborhood,'' the report says. ``In contrast, most Iraqis lack confidence in the Multinational Forces and say they feel less safe when MNF are present in their neighborhood.''
One section of the poll, designed to measure Iraqi perceptions of U.S. forces, shows that in every region of the nation except Tikrit, half or more of the population thought the coalition ``came to Iraq with good intentions.'' Only four in 10 in Tikrit held that view.
Conditions
When respondents were given a set of conditions regarding how long forces should remain in Iraq, majorities in all regions said the troops should leave either ``after a permanent government is elected'' or should stay ``as long as the elected government wants them to stay.'' Elections for a permanent government in Iraq are scheduled for December.
``There is some good news for U.S. policy in this poll, in that it shows relatively firm support for Iraqi security forces,'' Kenneth Katzman, a Middle East analyst with the Congressional Research Service, which provides reports to members of the House and Senate, said after the data was described to him. ``The poll also appears to show that Iraqis, again even in restive areas, do not want U.S. forces to depart before stability returns.''
Katz said the level of support for insurgents in Sunni areas such as Tikrit -- where 41 percent of residents said the opposition would improve the situation in Iraq -- suggests the insurgency ``will not diminish any time soon.''
A Stepped-Up Campaign
Since the poll was taken in mid-March, insurgents have stepped up their campaign against U.S. forces and their allies. Six hundred Iraqi civilians were killed by warfare in May, according to a study by the Brookings Institution in Washington. Pentagon data show the number of U.S. military personnel killed in action has steadily risen from 31 in March to 61 in June.
The report said questioners conducted face-to-face interviews with 1,983 Iraqis over the age of 18 representing all significant political segments of Iraqi society.
The Iraqi views parallel those of the American public. An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted June 23-26 found that 53 percent of Americans believe the Iraq war wasn't worth fighting, yet 58 percent say U.S. troops should remain there until civil order is restored.
To contact the reporters on this story: Janine Zacharia in Washington at jzacharia@bloomberg.net; Richard Keil in Washington at rkeil@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 1, 2005 00:15 EDT
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