Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- There are all sorts of ways to assess the political climate in the U.S. three months before a presidential election.

The most obvious, while hardly scientific, is to open your eyes and ears: Let hatred ring.

Moving up on the reliability spectrum are the various opinion polls that capture the public's attitude toward incumbent President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry.

Another way of ascertaining which way the political winds are blowing is to follow the money. Corporations often contribute to both parties, ensuring that they have a friend in the White House no matter who's elected. A shift in money flows may suggest changing electoral odds.

Likewise, the price of futures contracts for Bush and Kerry traded on the Iowa Electronic Markets and Intrade.com -- ordinary folks putting their own money on the line -- reflect expected outcomes.

My own tiny window into the political climate was a celebrity auction Monday night in Edgartown, Massachusetts, on the island of Martha's Vineyard. The ``Possible Dreams Auction'' has been a fixture on the Vineyard for 26 years as a way to raise money for Martha's Vineyard Community Services, a private, non- profit social services organization.

Self-Sacrifice

With humorist Art Buchwald as auctioneer and the island literati/glitterati, along with some outsiders, donating (what else?) themselves -- a sail with veteran CBS newsman Walter Cronkite, dinner with Mike and Mary Wallace (he of ``60 Minutes'' fame), a private sunset concert at the waterfront home of Livingston Taylor -- bidders ponied up a total of $515,800, a record, for the privilege of hobnobbing with the rich and famous.

This year's winning ``dream'' was a 10-day stay at a private family estate overlooking the ocean in the hills of Maui, which sold for $42,000 (not much difference between the auction price and actual price of such a high-end holiday). Singer/songwriter Carly Simon, who generally garners the highest bid at the ``Possible Dreams Auction,'' did not donate her talents this year.

In some cases, it was surprising how much, or how little, people were willing to pay for their dream.

Someone paid $11,000 to essentially hang out in the kitchen. (OK, so it was billed as ``menu planning, preparation, wine pairings and cooking'' for 10 guests with an island chef, but it sure sounds like KP duty to me.)

Qualitative Analysis

At the other end of the expectation meter was the price paid for a day with Mary Steenburgen on the set of her hit TV series ``Joan of Arcadia'' and lunch with her and actor/husband Ted Danson: a scant $4,000.

My mind was already processing. Was there a pattern in who's hot and who's not, a message in how preferences have changed over the years? Maybe an analysis of historical data would shed some light on the political and economic climate.

Martha's Vineyard Community Services could not provide me with the data on dream prices from previous auctions, so I was limited to what was reported in old clippings of the Vineyard Gazette, the local newspaper.

Based on a very limited set of data points, what follows are my unscientific observations, in no particular order of importance:

1. Trust is a big issue (hold the ``duhs'').

Walter Cronkite, the most trusted man in America, saw his value appreciate 25 percent during Bush's first term: from $20,000 in 2001 to $25,000 in 2003 and 2004. Even adjusted for inflation, Walter is up more than 18 percent in the last three years.

Whether it's sailing with Captain Cronkite on the Wyntje or lunching with him at his island home, people clearly want someone to tell them ``that's the way it is,'' not what Bush says it is.

Scorecard: Bush 0, Kerry 1.

2. Hillary's wave is cresting.

While New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton took a back seat to husband Bill on the opening night of the Democratic National Convention last week, she's the rising star in the family. Her sights are set on the White House. All Bill can hope to achieve, short of a constitutional amendment to allow him to run for a third term, is a supporting role as First Gentleman.

It's no surprise that the value of a one-on-one with Bill's buddy, lawyer Vernon Jordan, has gone down in nominal and real terms since Clinton left office.

Gracious Golfer

Back in 1997, 18 holes of golf with Vernon went for $6,500. By 2001, his net worth had slipped to $4,500. The 2.2 percent increase to $4,600 this year doesn't even keep up with the rate of inflation.

With John Kerry and John Edwards posing a formidable challenge to President Bush, Hillary's probable ascension to the throne has been pushed back to 2012. Her discounted present value took a dive.

So who needs to pay up for golf with the First Friend, even though Vernon was always very gracious about allowing Bill to take a mulligan?

Scorecard: Bush 0, Kerry 2.

3. Hollywood should stick to entertainment.

Maybe it's the stars themselves, but based on the prices they command, there's been noticeable deflation in star power with Bush in the White House.

Face time with power couple Mike Nichols and Diane Sawyer was auctioned off for $30,000 in 1998, $28,000 in 2000 and $22,000 this year. (The numbers are not adjusted for fluctuations in the business cycle.) Danson and Steenburgen, also FOB's, saw their value cut by more than half in the last four years.

Are the data suggesting the continued absence of Hollywood on the Potomac with Bush II? Maybe actors should learn their lines and limit their recitation to the movie set.

Scorecard: Bush 1, Kerry 2.

4. You can only fool some of the rich some of the time.

During the late 1990s stock-market bubble, companies continued to report soaring quarterly profits even as income reported to the Internal Revenue Service was falling.

Profits as measured in the Bureau of Economic Analysis's National Income and Product Accounts (derived from tax returns) peaked in the third quarter of 1997. Reported profits for the Standard & Poor's 500 companies kept rising through the second quarter of 2000.

The rich must have sensed that some of their wealth was ephemeral. The record for money raised at the ``Possible Dreams Auction'' during the bubble was $460,000 in 1998. The total fell in 1999 and 2000 before rising in 2001, taking out the old high in 2003 and topping it again this year.

The rich seem to be saying the economy's OK again.

Scorecard: Bush 2, Kerry 2.

So, after all the digging and data analysis, I end up at the same place as the opinion polls. But just think of all the dreaming I did to get there.

To contact the writer of this column: Caroline Baum in New York at cabaum@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 5, 2004 12:05 EDT