April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will produce as many as 13 named storms, fewer than last year, while colder water in the Gulf of Mexico may ease the threat to that oil-rich region, WeatherBug predicted today.

WeatherBug, a private forecaster providing mobile and desktop applications, said the June 1-Nov. 30 season may produce six to eight hurricanes. Last year, there were 16 named storms, eight of them hurricanes.

Spots of unusually cold water in the Gulf, home to more than a quarter of U.S. oil production, are expected to damp storm development there, especially early in the season, said Mark Hoekzema, director of meteorological operations for WeatherBug, based in Germantown, Maryland.

“I wouldn’t say they are out of the woods, but there are some signs that it will be better than the last couple of years,” Hoekzema, a meteorologist since 1987, said by telephone. “The Gulf is the Gulf, though, and one storm can become a major storm pretty rapidly there.”

Three to four of the hurricanes should reach major strength, with winds greater than 111 mph (178 kph) on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, WeatherBug said.

Last year was the sixth most-active season, according to information compiled by Weather Underground Inc. of Ann Arbor, Michigan. The most-active season was 2005, when 28 named storms formed.

Damaged Gulf Coast

Of the 2008 storms, Hurricane Ike, which struck the Texas coast near Galveston, caused an estimated $18 billion in damage, making it the fourth most-costly U.S. hurricane, according to Weather Underground. Katrina, which killed 1,833 people in New Orleans and along the Gulf in 2005, was the costliest, causing an estimated $81 billion in damage.

WeatherBug last year fell short in its outlook, forecasting 10 to 12 named storms, with four to six becoming hurricanes.

A weakening of the La Nina effect in the Pacific is among the reasons there will be fewer storms than last year, Hoekzema said. La Nina is a cooling in the Pacific, which helps create the conditions necessary for storm development in the Atlantic.

He doesn’t think an El Nino, a patch of warm water in the Pacific, will develop. El Ninos tend to come with stronger upper atmosphere winds in the Atlantic that retard hurricane development.

The WeatherBug 2009 prediction of 11 to 13 storms is close to the 13 storms AccuWeather.com forecast last month. In December, Colorado State University predicted 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes.

The Fort Collins, Colorado, school will update its forecast next week.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: April 2, 2009 08:00 EDT