By Ellen Pinchuk and Anastasia Ustinova
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he won’t invest in Russia in part because the country is “unstable” and may break apart. He’s considering betting against the ruble.
“There’s a good chance Russia will continue to disintegrate into more than one country,” Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Moscow today. “Whenever empires have disintegrated throughout history, the reverberations have gone on for a long, long time.”
Russia’s economy is contracting for the first time in a decade after prices for oil, the country’s main export earner, plunged by two-thirds in six months. VTB Capital said today that its Russian GDP Indicator for January declined 4 percent, the steepest monthly drop since 1999.
“I am not optimistic about the continuous stability of Russia,” the Singapore-based investor said.
The slide in oil prices has forced the central bank to drain more than a third of its foreign currency reserves, the world’s largest after China and Japan, slowing the devaluation of the ruble. The currency has fallen 35 percent against the dollar since Russia’s five-day war with Georgia in August. Investors have since pulled about $290 billion out of the country, according to BNP Paribas SA.
Rogers criticized the central bank for announcing last week that it would defend the ruble if it fell to 41 versus a basket of 55 percent dollars and 45 percent euros, which was breached today.
“Knowing that the central bank has drawn a line in the sand, it makes me sit up and take a little more notice about the ruble,” Rogers said. “So I will start thinking more about” betting against the currency.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bradley Cook in Moscow at bcook7@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: February 5, 2009 05:40 EST
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