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Rogers Says Gold Likely to Be Outperformed by Silver, Palladium

By Danielle Rossingh and Nigel Stevenson

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who correctly predicted the commodities rally in 1999, said gold is likely to decline and it may be outperformed by silver and palladium.

``Right now there's a gigantic speculative long position in gold,'' Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said today in an interview from Milan. ``I'm waiting. When everybody is on one side of the boat you should move to the other side.''

Gold prices surged to a 27-year high of $771.10 an ounce on Oct. 19 in London, partly on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month, spurring demand for the metal as an alternative investment to the dollar.

Speculative long positions in New York gold futures, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 201,859 contracts in the week ended Oct. 16, the highest since at least January 1994, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Oct. 19.

Platinum ``would have to go down a lot more before I would buy,'' said Rogers, 65, who co-founded the Quantum hedge fund with George Soros in the 1970s. ``It's making new all-time highs. If I had to buy something new in the precious metals, I would buy silver or palladium.''

Platinum climbed to a record $1,460 on Oct. 19 on concern mine shutdowns in South Africa, the world's biggest producer, will curb supplies.

Silver and palladium are trading 75 percent below their all- time highs, while sugar is 85 percent below its record, Rogers said. ``You should be looking at that sort of thing.''

Rogers, who holds commodities through the Rogers International Commodity Index, said he ``doesn't like to buy things that are going straight up,'' such as copper. Copper prices have risen for five consecutive years on increased demand from China. Copper traded at a record $8,335 a metric ton in May.

Rogers is the author of ``Adventure Capitalist'' and ``Hot Commodities.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Nigel Stevenson in London at nstevenson@bloomberg.net; Danielle Rossingh in London at drossingh@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 24, 2007 11:03 EDT

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