Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- David Ivry, mastermind of Israel's 1981 raid on Iraq's Osirak nuclear site, has an inscribed photo of the obliterated reactor in his office: ``Appreciation for the outstanding job you did on the Iraqi nuclear program, which made our job much easier in Desert Storm. Dick Cheney.''

Twenty-five years later, the U.S. and Israel say they face a fresh nuclear challenge, in Iran. This time, officials and experts say, a military strike is something Israel would prefer not to carry out on its own, because of the risks to Israeli pilots and the likelihood of triggering retaliatory missile strikes and Iranian terrorism.

Israel instead is backing referral of Iran to the United Nations Security Council. ``The Israelis have been very serious in wanting diplomacy to succeed,'' said Daniel Kurtzer, U.S. ambassador to Israel until last September. ``They've been urgently trying to get us to get diplomacy working. The problem is, at some point they're going to say, `The clock has run out, and we have to think of something else.'''

Tensions between Iran and the West have risen since Iran said it was resuming uranium conversion, the second step in mastering the nuclear fuel cycle needed to build a weapon.

Iran insists its program is for peaceful purposes.

``Our nation doesn't need nuclear weapons,'' Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a televised press conference in Tehran Jan. 14.

`Wiped Off the Map'

Still, Ahmadinejad's statement in a speech in Tehran in October that ``Israel must be wiped off the map,'' and Israel's promise that it won't allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, have raised the possibility that the Jewish state could strike preemptively at Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, and trigger a Middle East war.

Israel's weaponry is more sophisticated than it was back in 1981. It has better bombs, including U.S.-made munitions that can bust through underground bunkers where nuclear facilities could be hidden, and it has jets with longer range that could make the 1,600-mile round trip to Iran.

Iran, having learned from the Osirak strike, has dispersed, and in some places buried, its nuclear sites. Some are near civilians, weapons experts say. Israel would probably cross Jordanian air space, which could enrage the Palestinian population there. And it would need U.S. permission because the U.S. controls Iraqi air space through which Israeli jets also would fly.

`Pulled Into It'

``I don't think this is something they can handle on their own,'' said retired Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni, the former head of U.S. Central Command, which has responsibility for the Middle East. ``If they want to strike, we're going to be pulled into it.''

Shai Feldman, director of the Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University in Waltham, Massachusetts, said ``the international community is mobilized'' in opposition to Iran's nuclear ambitions. That contrasts with the late 1970s and early 1980s, when Israel found the world indifferent to Saddam Hussein's nuclear program, he said.

``The decision has been there is no need for Israel to take the lead on this,'' Feldman said.

Proving Himself

The war of words between Israel and Iran comes at a moment of political instability in Israel: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon remains in a coma and Ehud Olmert, the acting prime minister, is working to prove his credentials and consolidate power ahead of a March 28 national election.

Should Iran try to test Olmert before the election, he would respond forcefully, Kurtzer said. ``He can't afford to be perceived as weak, so if a tough decision has to be made now, he'll make it.''

Israel is hoping that international pressure, including perhaps UN sanctions, will retard Iran's nuclear program. While the International Atomic Energy Agency is scheduled to vote on referring Iran's nuclear program to the Security Council next week in Vienna, it remains unclear whether the U.S. will persuade veto-wielding Russia and China -- both with energy ties to Iran -- to back sanctions.

If diplomacy fails, Israel might prefer that the U.S., with its more robust forces, strike Iranian targets, former and current Israeli and U.S. officials say.

``In my opinion it should be first the United States, which is sitting very close to Iran,'' Ivry said in a Jan. 23 telephone interview. ``They can do the bombing very simply.''

`Save Some Time'

Any strike would only delay Iran's nuclear program, not eradicate it, said Ivry, who's now president of Boeing Co.'s Israeli unit, based in Tel Aviv. ``You can't stop the program totally if the leaders want it. What can be done is save some time.''

Ivan Oelrich, a weapons expert at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington, agreed. ``Everything you've destroyed, they can rebuild,'' he said. Still, ``if there are 10 steps in this nuclear chain and you destroy one vital link, then you've stopped the process'' temporarily.

The Israeli Air Force has acquired 25 long-distance strike aircraft -- Boeing F-15I fighters, which have a range of roughly 2,700 miles (4,344 kilometers). It has also bought 102 Lockheed Martin Corp. F-16I jets customized for long-range missions, 60 of which have been delivered, according to published records.

The U.S. last year approved Israel's purchase of 100 laser- guided, 5,000-pound bunker-busting bombs. ``The GBU-28 is a special weapon that was developed for penetrating hardened command centers located deep underground,'' the Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency said last April. The bomb would be carried on Israel's F-15s.

Israel successfully carried out its most recent test of its Arrow missile-defense system in December, which could defend against Iran's Shahab missiles.

Iran has threatened to disrupt oil supplies if its nuclear program is referred to the Security Council. It dominates the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which at least 35 percent of the world's oil is shipped, and could threaten that commerce with its anti-ship cruise missiles or by mining the waterway, former and current U.S. military officials say.

To contact the reporter on this story: Janine Zacharia in Washington at jzacharia@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: January 26, 2006 00:11 EST