Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has to step down in 2008, is being accused by opposition leaders of trying to handpick his successor.

Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov in June said he may run for president in the 2008 election and might seek to form a coalition of opposition parties. Four weeks later, prosecutors began probing allegations Kasyanov bought a home from the state for less than 2 percent of market value while in office.

The Kasyanov investigation shows how Putin's administration is determined to choose Russia's next president, said Margot Light, an analyst at the London School of Economics. A Moscow court in May sentenced billionaire and Putin opponent Mikhail Khodorkovsky to nine years in prison after he was convicted of fraud and tax evasion.

``As soon as anyone looks like they are going to create political opposition to Putin, a case starts against them,'' said Light, a professor of international relations. ``This shows the Kremlin will not only choose the successor, but also the contenders.''

Concerns about Russia's commitment to democracy may slow efforts to strengthen ties to western nations, said Alexei Makarkin, an analyst at the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow. After Khodorkovsky, 42, was convicted, U.S. President George W. Bush said it appeared the Russian courts were being used for political purposes.

`Antidemocratic Means'

The Kremlin uses ``antidemocratic means'' to maintain power and ``knows it can't win a fair election,'' Khodorkovsky said on his Web site yesterday.

Kasyanov, 47, is suspected of buying a $27 million country home and 11 hectares (27 acres) of land for about $384,000, Oleg Mitvol, deputy head of the Natural Resources Ministry's inspectorate, said July 11.

``I have no doubt the systematic, libelous campaign opened against me and based on lies and distorted facts is part of the general strategy to clear the political field,'' Kasyanov said in a July 25 statement.

The Kremlin, which denied involvement in the Khodorkovsky case, said Putin has nothing to do with the Kasyanov probe.

``Such viewpoints are disappointing because they don't reflect reality,'' said Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Putin.

`Kremlin Afraid'

Other opposition leaders said Kasyanov was only being investigated because he may be a threat to the succession.

``Any real candidate risks falling into the same situation as Kasyanov,'' said Sergei Mitrokhin, a deputy chairman at Yabloko, the country's oldest liberal democratic party. ``The Kremlin is afraid of Kasyanov because he has international contacts and authority and they want to discredit him before world opinion.''

The Russian constitution requires Putin, 52, to step down when his second, four-year term ends. Putin yesterday said he ``might like to'' stay past 2008, if not for the constitutional ban.

Putin's probable successor is being chosen through a power struggle between as many as four factions inside the Kremlin, said analysts including Andrei Piontkovsky, director of the Center for Strategic Studies in Moscow.

``The one thing that unites the Kremlin now is the desire to prevent any candidate out of their stable from even running for president,'' Piontkovsky said.

The Kremlin managed the March 2004 elections, partly by using state-owned television stations to bolster Putin's image, the Vienna-based Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said after the vote. Regional leaders pressured citizens to vote for Putin, and six regions had ``implausibly'' high voter turnout, the group said. In Chechnya, 94 percent of registered voters cast ballots, with Putin garnering 92 percent of the vote.

Putin received 71 percent of the national vote.

Repeat of 2004

``The Kremlin is seeking to repeat the 2004 elections, where you had very weak opposition candidates that served the purpose of making it look like a democratic vote,'' said Makarkin at the Center for Political Technologies.

Kasyanov may not be the candidate to take on the Kremlin.

He wouldn't get more than 3 percent of the vote today because most people are ``indifferent to him,'' said Yuri Levada, director of the Moscow-based Levada Center, which conducts opinion polls.

``Russians will not go to the streets for another person, even if it's a popular politician'' because they are politically passive, Lavada said. ``They will do it only if you take away something from them, like their pensions.''

Putin Popularity

Putin's popularity rating dropped to a record 32 percent in January after the government changed the state pension program to give people cash payments instead of free medicine and transport.

His rating was 42 percent in July, according to the Levada Center's monthly survey of 1,600 Russians, which has a margin of error of 3.4 percent. Emergency Minister Sergei Shoigu was the second-most popular, with support from 17 percent of those polled.

Kasyanov isn't the only opposition figure facing obstacles.

Former chess Grandmaster Garry Kasparov, who quit chess to create an opposition political movement, last month said government officials obstructed his tour of Russia's south. Officials in the city of Vladikavkaz forced Kasparov, 42, to cancel a meeting because they said the curtain fell down in the hall he rented, Kasparov's organization said on its Web site.

Kasparov in April said he wanted to create ``real democratic opposition'' to Putin's ``dictatorship.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Todd Prince at Tpirnc2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 3, 2005 03:37 EDT