Obama Has Post-Convention Lead; Palin Largely Unknown (Update2)

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama jumped to his biggest lead since late July in public opinion polls, after his televised speech to more than 75,000 people in a Denver football stadium and his Democratic National Convention reconciliation with rival Hillary Clinton.

How long Obama holds the lead is open to question, as voters react to John McCain's surprise selection yesterday of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin for his running mate and Republicans begin their nominating convention Sept. 1 in St. Paul, Minnesota.

Obama leads McCain 49-41 percent in the most recent Gallup Poll daily tracking survey, which measured voter sentiment during a three-day period ending Aug. 28. The presidential contenders had been tied at 45 percent in the last Gallup tracking results before the Democrats started their Colorado convention.

The 8 percentage-point lead almost matches Obama's biggest margin of the campaign, a 9-point bulge in tracking polls conducted July 24-26, Gallup said.

Obama's Denver speech on Aug. 28 attracted 38.4 million television viewers, 57 percent more than the audience in 2004, when Massachusetts Senator John Kerry accepted the party's presidential nomination, according to Nielsen Co.

Qualified for White House

In a separate USA Today/Gallup poll conducted yesterday, about 40 percent of respondents said they consider the 44-year- old first-term Alaska governor qualified to be president -- the lowest level since President George H.W. Bush picked Indiana Senator Dan Quayle as his running mate in 1988. One-third of the people surveyed don't think Palin is qualified, and the rest had no opinion.

By comparison, 57 percent of Americans considered Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden qualified to take the top office if necessary, with 18 percent doubting his qualifications.

Palin may not attract large numbers of disillusioned supporters of Hillary Clinton. Only 9 percent of Democratic women said Palin makes them more likely to support the Republican ticket; 15 percent were less likely to back McCain. Among all women, 20 percent said Palin's selection made them more likely to vote for McCain and 11 percent were less likely.

Half of those polled had never heard of Palin before her selection, the Gallup/USA Today poll found.

Women and Palin

In a Rasmussen Reportstracking poll, 35 percent of those surveyed said Palin's selection made them more likely to vote for McCain, while 33 percent said they were less likely to back the veteran Arizona senator.

Most voters questioned in the Rasmussen poll had a good impression of Palin, who beat out more experienced contenders to join McCain's ticket.

Obama, a senator from Illinois, jumped to a 47-43 percent advantage over McCain in Rasmussen tracking results through yesterday, the biggest margin in that poll since late July, after Obama's speech to 200,000 people in Berlin. Including undecided voters who say they're leaning toward one candidate or another, Obama leads 49-45 percent, Rasmussen said.

Gallup's tracking poll interviews at least 1,000 U.S. adults each day, and reflects combined data from the most recent three days of polling, and has an error margin of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Rasmussen surveys 1,000 likely voters each night, and combines three days of polling in each tracking result. Its poll also has a plus or minus 2 percentage point error margin.

To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Drummond in St. Paul, Minnesota, at bdrummond@bloomberg.net, or Nicholas Johnston in Denver at njohnston3@bloomberg.net