Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- American workers have rarely taken
home a smaller share of the nation's prosperity, a condition that
is undermining bipartisan support for free trade and creating
friction between President George W. Bush's administration and
the Federal Reserve.
After 16 consecutive quarters of economic growth, pay is
rising at a slower rate than in any similar expansion since the
end of World War II. Companies are paying less of their cash
gains in the form of wages and salaries than at any time since
the Great Depression, according to government figures.
Such a disparity, partly the result of globalization of the
labor market, helps explain why the Bush administration is
struggling to muster support for lower trade barriers even with
the jobless rate at a four-year low. The imbalance has also
triggered a debate between Bush's Treasury Department and the Fed
about how low unemployment can go without kindling inflation.
``There is no doubt that something is happening'' to reduce
labor's share of income, says Robert Solow, a Nobel Prize-winning
economist and professor emeritus at Massachusetts Institute of
Technology in Cambridge. An economy that doesn't distribute its
gains widely is ``poorly performing,'' he says.
From the final quarter of 2001 through last year's third
quarter, total compensation paid to employees by corporations,
including health benefits, rose at a 4.3 percent average annual
rate, according to government figures. That's the slowest growth
for any similar period in post-war expansions lasting at least
four years.
`Not Connecting'
Stripping away benefits, corporate wages and salaries rose
at a 3.4 percent annual rate in the 16-quarter period, the
slowest of any post-war expansion lasting that long. Wages and
salaries as a share of the cash corporations are generating from
the expansion stood at 51 percent in the second and third
quarters, the lowest in government records going back to 1929.
Including benefits, labor's share was the lowest since 1997.
``The good economic news is not connecting,'' says John
Zogby, president of Zogby International Inc., a Utica, New York-
based polling firm. ``You've got fairly low unemployment, solid
profits'' and gains in stock and housing markets and yet ``there
is a considerable amount of economic anxiety.''
A December Zogby poll found 28 percent of Americans said
they are better off than they were a year earlier, 52 percent
said their finances were the same, and 20 percent said they were
worse off, even as the economy grew by $787 billion. Only 38
percent said Bush is doing a ``good'' or ``excellent'' job in
office.
`Tipping Point'
Treasury Secretary John Snow said Jan. 6 that wage growth
will pick up. ``We are at that tipping point where labor's share
of national income will be rising,'' he said.
That may require further declines in the unemployment rate,
something the Fed is likely to resist. Fed policy makers flagged
high levels of ``resource utilization,'' meaning labor and
productive capacity, as an inflation risk at their December
policy meeting. Michael Moskow, Chicago Fed president, said Jan.
12 that the 4.9 percent unemployment rate reported for December
``is roughly consistent with an economy operating at potential.''
Treasury officials object to that idea. ``Nobody knows what
the full employment, non-inflationary number is,'' Snow said
after the government published the December unemployment rate.
``I'm confident it's considerably lower. We have room to bring it
down.''
Solow says the Fed should seek full employment, which
probably corresponds to a jobless rate of less than 4.9 percent.
``The standard economic argument for free trade involves the
presumption that you keep the domestic economy fully employed,''
he says. ``How far are we from having a fully employed economy? I
would rather suspect we are not there yet.''
Free Trade
Arguments for free trade are losing their force with some
members of Congress, who blame globalization for holding down
wage growth in the U.S.
The House recently approved a bill that requires employers
to certify immigrants are eligible to work and allows for
construction of 700 miles of fences along the Mexican border.
Last July, a trade pact with Central America cleared the House by
only two votes after Vice President Dick Cheney lobbied
Republicans.
``Support for both trade and globalization is declining,''
says Representative Maurice Hinchey, a New York Democrat. ``You
are working harder, and you are working longer, and you are
deriving less benefits. People say they are confused about what
is going on.''
Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa, the Republican chairman of
the Senate Finance Committee that approves all trade accords,
said Dec. 20 that a global agreement to lower trade barriers is
likely to ``go over like a lead balloon'' in Congress unless
there are clear benefits for U.S. workers and companies.
Minimum Wage
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Chief Executive Officer H. Lee Scott
last October urged Congress to raise the minimum wage, which has
remained at $5.15 an hour since 1997, saying the company's
customers ``are struggling to get by.'' The Senate that same
month rejected a proposal by Massachusetts Democrat Edward
Kennedy to increase the minimum to $6.25 over 18 months.
The weaker returns to labor, and the Fed's concerns about
resource utilization, are even more perplexing when seen in the
context of rising productivity.
Output per hour has grown at an average 3.6 percent annual
rate over the past 16 quarters versus 2.6 percent the prior four
years. Companies have room to boost pay without raising prices
because productivity gains reduce production costs. They have
little incentive to do so, though, with ready sources of low-cost
labor overseas and declining union membership at home.
Pay Not Issue
``We are not finding compensation being the issue at all,''
says Terry Laudal, senior vice president of human resources at
SAP America in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, a unit of Walldorf,
Germany-based SAP AG, the world's largest maker of business-
management software. ``The issue is really the culture. Are you
winning, are you investing in personal growth?''
Pay is typically a fourth- or fifth-rank issue for SAP job
applicants, says Mark Steinke, the firm's vice president of
staffing for North America. In a sign that employees are focusing
on stability, SAP's turnover rates for sales and marketing in the
U.S. and Canada dropped to 12 percent last year from around 18
percent in 2003, Laudal says.
The bursting of the Internet bubble and corporate accounting
scandals, which shuttered dozens of firms, are causing workers to
value job security more than pay raises, executives say.
``When you put it all together you get what you have now, a
tight labor market but no wage inflation,'' says Jeffrey Joerres,
chairman of Manpower Inc., the Milwaukee-based employment
services firm that places about 2 million people a year
worldwide. ``We are in a whole new territory.''
To contact the reporters on this story:
Craig Torres in Washington (1) (202) at ctorres3@bloomberg.net or
Alex Tanzi in Washington at (1) (202) 624-1959 or
atanzi@bloomberg
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kevin Miller at
(1) (202) 624-1914 or
kmiller@bloomberg.net .
-- With reporting by Mark Drajem, Nicholas Johnston and Alison
Fitzgerald in Washington. Editor: Rohner (rxj/dfr/mfr)