Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke, chief White House
economist and a former Federal Reserve governor, was named by
President George W. Bush to succeed Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman.
``Ben Bernanke is the right man to build on the record Alan
Greenspan has established,'' Bush said today as the men stood by his
side in the Oval Office. The economist, currently chairman of the
Council of Economic Advisers, ``commands deep respect in the global
financial community.''
Bernanke, 51, said his first task will be to ensure continuity
as he replaces the man Bush today called a ``legend.'' The former
Princeton professor, who was on the Fed from 2002 until June, may
champion the move toward greater openness, possibly including a
numeric inflation target, and keep it raising rates to counter
rising prices, economists said.
``He will put an emphasis on a more predictable format for
Federal Reserve monetary policy,'' said William Ford, former
president of the Fed Bank of Atlanta.
Bernanke's first challenges include establishing credibility
with investors and Congress and showing that he, like Greenspan, has
what it takes to keep the economy on keel during crises. Greenspan,
who is 79 and will leave the Fed when his term as governor expires
Jan. 31, gave Bernanke his seal of approval.
``The president has made a distinguished appointment in Ben
Bernanke,'' Greenspan said today. ``Ben comes with superb academic
credentials and important insights into the ways our economy
functions.''
First Priority
Bush's decision to tap Bernanke as chief White House economist
in June was widely seen as grooming him to replace Greenspan.
Bernanke led surveys as both a qualified and likely choice for
successor.
``He's got the right pedigree,'' said Ethan Harris, chief U.S.
economist for Lehman Brothers Inc. That said, ``you're replacing an
icon with a mere mortal, and he's going to have to prove himself in
the job.''
Greenspan maneuvered the economy through two stock-market
collapses, in 1987 and 2000, and two recessions, in 1990-91 and in
2001. The expansion in between was the longest in history.
``If I am confirmed to this position, my first priority will be
to maintain continuity with the policies and policy strategies
established during the Greenspan years,'' Bernanke said today.
Confirmation Process
Bush, who has two Fed vacancies left to fill, will become the
first president since Ronald Reagan to appoint or reappoint all
seven board members. Bush is nominating Bernanke for a 14-year term
as governor and a separate four-year term as chairman, and he may
help shape the Fed by influencing Bush's picks.
The Fed chairmanship is subject to Senate confirmation. Banking
Committee Chairman Richard Shelby, an Alabama Republican, said today
he expects Bernanke to be ``well-received by all members of our
committee.'' A spokesman for the committee said he expects a hearing
before Congress adjourns this year, and Shelby said in an interview
that ``we're going to move it as fast as we can and are awaiting the
paperwork.''
As a Fed governor for almost three years starting in 2002,
Bernanke helped re-charge its research agenda. He reached out to
junior staff economists in informal cafeteria seminars and through
speeches on communication policies and alternative steps the Fed
could use to ward off deflation.
Bernanke must now convince bond markets that he is an inflation
fighter. It will be a tough task: None of his predecessors faced
markets that move as quickly on instant information as they do today.
Fed Rates
Even as the Fed has lifted the benchmark lending rate 11 times
over the past 15 months off the lowest levels in 46 years, inflation,
by every measure, has moved higher. Most economists in a Bloomberg
News monthly survey predict the rate will rise to 4.5 percent by the
end of the first quarter from 3.75 percent now.
U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell after today's nomination. The
yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose 7 basis points, or 0.07
percentage point, to 4.45 percent at 4:20 p.m. in New York.
``The sell-off was not an expression of dissatisfaction with
the choice, but merely a reflection of the uncertainty going
forward,'' said Bill Gross, chief investment officer at Pacific
Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California.
U.S. stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index
gaining 1.7 percent. Japanese stocks gained, led by exporters, after
Bernanke's nomination. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 1.6
percent at 10:52 a.m. in Tokyo. South Korea's Kospi index rose 0.8
percent at 10:52 a.m. in Seoul. The Morgan Stanley Capital
International Asia Pacific Index, which tracks more than 1,000
stocks, added 1.3 percent.
Main Rival
Bernanke today won an endorsement from his main rival for the
post, Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein, who finished
second when 104 financial professionals were asked last month to
name Greenspan's most likely successor. Bernanke got 38 percent of
the vote and Feldstein 31 percent in the poll by Stone & McCarthy
Research Associates of Princeton, New Jersey.
``I've known Ben for many years,'' Feldstein said today in an
interview. ``He has done a great deal of research at the Fed. He
will do an excellent job.''
Bernanke is an advocate of setting an inflation target, or
specifying a numerical goal for prices. The Federal Open Market
Committee debated the strategy as early as February and decided to
defer the discussion.
Economists said Bernanke is unlikely to push the idea
immediately, in part because both Governors Roger Ferguson Jr. and
Donald Kohn are opposed.
``This is obviously an issue on which knowledgeable and
reasonable people can disagree,'' former Fed Governor Susan Phillips
said in an interview. ``I don't think he will be in a position to
move overnight.''
Handling Congress
Bernanke once named his personal range for desirable inflation,
as measured by the so-called core personal consumption expenditure
price index, which omits food and fuel costs.
A target in the range of 1 to 2 percent a year ``might be a
good initial choice,'' he said during his confirmation hearing as a
governor on July 18, 2002. By that measure, inflation was at the top
of his target for the 12 months ended in August.
Bernanke must also gain credibility among lawmakers. For much
of the past decade, Greenspan received praise during his appearances,
and congressmen rarely challenged the Fed's policies. Since he
started his White House job on June 21, Bernanke has testified twice
before Congress and given five speeches on non-controversial
subjects.
``We need a careful, non-ideological person who understands
that the Federal Reserve's main job is to fight inflation and Ben
Bernanke seems to fit that bill,'' Senator Charles Schumer, a New
York Democrat, said in a statement.
Bernanke has shown he's agile under questioning from members of
Congress, particularly on issues that Democrats support, such as a
higher minimum wage.
Fed's Dual Mandate
Asked in May by Maryland Senator Paul Sarbanes, a Democrat,
whether he would take back what he wrote in a 1991 textbook that
increasing the minimum wage would have only minor economic drawbacks,
Bernanke replied: ``No, senator, I've just become more uncertain.''
Bernanke will have to at least express concern about jobs and
growth in his nomination hearing, and, if confirmed, during his
semi-annual testimony in February. Unlike many of the world's
central banks, the Fed has two mandates: stable prices as well as
sustained growth that will result in low unemployment.
Delivering on the expansion will be tricky.
Economists expect U.S. growth to slow, even as inflation
expectations rise in the aftermath of a 51 percent increase in
retail gasoline prices this year. Fed officials have made it clear
they intend to keep leaning against inflation by pushing up the
federal funds rate, even after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hurt
third-quarter growth prospects.
Selection Process
The president called Bernanke from Air Force One on Oct. 21 to
discuss the nomination and offered him the post in the Oval Office
about 7:15 a.m. today, spokesman Scott McClellan said in an e-mailed
statement.
Bush's nominating committee consulted academics, Wall Street
executives, business leaders and lawmakers from both parties in
Congress in a search that McClellan said began in late April. The
initial list had more than 20 names, and Bush met with the search
committee several times and sought advice from Greenspan on the
qualifications needed.
The nominating committee included Vice President Dick Cheney;
Chief of Staff Andy Card; National Economic Adviser Al Hubbard; Liza
Wright, an aide for presidential personnel; and I. Lewis ``Scooter''
Libby, Cheney's chief of staff.
Bernanke graduated summa cum laude from Harvard University in
1975 with a bachelor's degree in economics. He received his
doctorate in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology in 1979.
He became a ``star'' teacher at Princeton and will use those
personal skills in managing the Fed staff and working with the
governors, said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard
who has known Bernanke for 30 years.
``You are getting a continuation as if Greenspan was there,''
said Rogoff, who also is a former chief economist for the
International Monetary Fund. ``He has the confidence to continue
Greenspan's policies, but as the world changes, react to those
changes as thoughtfully as Greenspan would.''
To contact the reporters on this story:
Brendan Murray in Washington at
brmurray@bloomberg.net ;
Craig Torres in Washington at
Ctorres3@bloomberg.net