Microsoft Investors Don't See Gains From Yahoo Deal (Update2)
Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Some Microsoft Corp. shareholders say
the software maker's $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo! Inc. may
backfire and reduce its ability to compete with Google Inc. in
Internet consumer services and advertising.
``This is a stupid deal, and I'm not happy,'' said Jane
Snorek, who helps manage more than $70 billion in assets at
First American Funds in Minneapolis. She said the firm began
selling much of its Microsoft position yesterday, when the stock
dropped 6.6 percent, the most since April 2006. ``I'm expecting
slow market-share erosion from Microsoft and Yahoo.''
Microsoft Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer is
attempting the biggest technology takeover after his own efforts
failed to narrow the gap with Google. Acquiring Yahoo would
still leave Microsoft with a smaller share of the Web
search market, and Ballmer would face the distraction of
combining the businesses, said Colin Gillis, an analyst at
Canaccord Adams in New York.
``Sergey and Larry are going to have no problems
sleeping,'' Gillis said, referring to Google founders Sergey
Brin and Larry Page. ``I don't see them tossing in their beds
tonight.''
Gillis recommends buying Google shares, has a hold rating
on Yahoo, and doesn't cover Microsoft. He said he doesn't own
shares in the companies.
Microsoft Falls
The $31-a-share bid of cash or Microsoft stock is 62
percent more than Yahoo's closing price on Jan. 31. Microsoft,
based in Redmond, Washington, fell $2.15 to $30.45 yesterday in
Nasdaq Stock Market trading. Ballmer, 51, has presided over a 44
percent drop in Microsoft shares since taking over as CEO in
January 2000.
Yahoo, which reported its eighth straight quarter of
declining profit this week, had dropped 18 percent this year
before the offer was announced. The shares rose $9.20, or 48
percent, to $28.38 yesterday.
Holders of Yahoo stock would be able to choose to take $31
in cash or 0.9509 of a Microsoft share for each Yahoo share.
Microsoft will pay for half the purchase with cash and half with
stock, the company said.
Yahoo, based in Sunnyvale, California, also has failed to
break Google's hold on the market, losing Internet search users
and share of the online ad market. The stock had lost almost
half its value in the past two years before the deal was
announced.
`Struggled Mightily'
``Yahoo has struggled mightily to compete against Google,''
said Dave Stepherson, a fund manager at Hardesty Capital
Management in Baltimore, which holds about 281,000 Microsoft
shares in its $650 million under management. ``That is not going
to change just because they're pairing up with Microsoft.''
The price is ``incredibly expensive,'' and Microsoft may
have done better by making smaller purchases to build out its
own business, he said.
Ballmer himself told analysts in July 2006 that buying
Yahoo wouldn't help Microsoft improve its search business,
because only Google has a better quality product than Microsoft.
``There's no acquisition path,'' Ballmer said when asked
whether Microsoft should make a large purchase.
Microsoft's bid is more than seven times larger than the $6
billion the company paid for AQuantive Inc., its largest
previous acquisition, which was completed in August. Microsoft
doesn't have the experience to fix and combine Yahoo, said Jon
Fisher, a portfolio manager at Fifth Third Asset Management in
Minneapolis.
`Fixer-Upper'
``They never bought a fixer-upper before,'' said Fisher,
whose firm manages $22 billion, including Microsoft shares.
The acquisition will probably face lengthy regulatory
scrutiny, said Peter Kadzik, an antitrust partner at Dickstein
Shapiro, a law firm in Washington. The U.S. Justice Department
said yesterday that it is ``interested'' in reviewing the
proposed combination. Neelie Kroes, commissioner of competition
for the European Commission, will also investigate, she said
yesterday.
Still, the deal would likely be approved because Google
would continue to lead the Internet advertising market after the
purchase, Kadzik said.
Google captured 56 percent of U.S. Web queries in December,
almost double the combined share for Yahoo and Microsoft, which
attracted 18 percent and 14 percent, according to New York-based
Nielsen Online.
Microsoft Optimism
Some Microsoft shareholders were pleased with the bid.
``If Microsoft executes well, it could be a really good
deal,'' said Robert Doll, who oversees $1.3 trillion as chief
investment officer of global equities at New York-based
BlackRock Inc. The firm owns Microsoft shares. ``The ball is
going to be in Microsoft's court.''
The deal also makes sense because Yahoo is strong in Asia,
while Microsoft's Web sites are popular in Latin America and
Europe, said Bob Ivins, executive vice president of ComScore
Inc., a market researcher in Reston, Virginia.
``When you combine the strengths of our two companies, the
result will be an incredibly efficient and competitive
offering,'' Ballmer said on a conference call yesterday. ``We
believe now in those benefits more than ever.''
Yahoo said yesterday that it plans to evaluate the proposal
``promptly.''
Microsoft's bankers, Morgan Stanley and Blackstone Group
LP, could split about $53 million in fees, and Yahoo's may get
about $80 million, according to Bloomberg estimates based on
publicly disclosed fees from about 600 transactions since 2005.
Microsoft had considered paying a per-share figure in the
mid-$30s range, before its bid of $31, the New York Times
reported. The newspaper also said Yahoo's investment bankers,
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.,
approached other potential suitors yesterday, including News
Corp. and AT&T Inc.
News Corp. spokeswoman Teri Everett and AT&T spokesman Mark
Siegel didn't immediately respond to requests for comment from
Bloomberg News via phone and e-mail messages. Yahoo spokeswoman
Diana Wong declined to comment.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Dina Bass in Seattle at
dbass2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 2, 2008 16:52 EST