Commodities Head for Biggest Monthly Gain Since May on Recovery
Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Commodities headed for the biggest
monthly gain since May as economic growth increased speculation
that demand for food, energy and metals will rebound.
The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials is up
9.9 percent for October, led by lean hogs, gasoline and zinc.
China, the world’s largest buyer of commodities from copper
to cotton, will sustain its economic rebound this quarter and
growth is likely to top the government’s 8 percent target for
2009, the central bank said today. The U.S. economy, the world’s
biggest, expanded for the first time in more than a year in the
third quarter, the Commerce Department said yesterday.
“Many of the economies are coming out of recession and you
have signs that metals demand is starting to accelerate,” said
Michael Widmer, global head of metals research at BofA Merrill
Lynch Global Research in London. “What you really need is
confirmation that the recovery is sustainable.”
The GSCI index was down 0.6 percent at 504.4 by 12:20 p.m.
London time. The Commerce Department said consumer spending fell
last month. Crude oil for December delivery fell 0.7 percent to
$79.35 a barrel, trimming this month’s advance to 12 percent.
“It’s going to be a rocky road ahead for real demand
growth,” said Andy Sommer, an analyst at Elektrizitaets-
Gesellschaft in Dietikon, Switzerland.
The Bank of Japan said it will stop buying corporate debt
at the end of the year as Australia and Norway raise interest
rates amid signs of a global economic recovery after the first
global recession since World War II.
Copper Erases Drop
Copper erased last month’s drop and is up 7 percent for
October. The three-month contract fell 1.1 percent to $6,589 a
ton on the London Metal Exchange. Aluminum fell 0.6 percent to
$1,940 a ton, for a monthly gain of 2.7 percent. The price of
aluminum is up 26 percent this year, the least among the six
main industrial metals traded on the LME.
“Aluminum has the best value in relative terms,” said
David Thurtell, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London.
Inventories of the lightweight metal have “definitely peaked
and are heading down quite significantly.”
Gold for immediate delivery fell 0.2 percent to $1,044.72
an ounce, narrowing this month’s rise to 3.7 percent. Prices
have gained 19 percent this year as speculation about inflation
and declines in the dollar spurred demand for the metal as a
hedge. The dollar was little changed against the euro today,
after falling 0.8 percent yesterday.
Gold Outlook
Gold will be higher “a month from now than we are now,”
Dennis Gartman, economist and editor of the Gartman Letter, said
in a television interview today. “I think we’ll be higher six
months from now than we will be a month from now.”
The metal will average $1,025 an ounce next year, compared
with a previous estimate of $925, ING Groep NV said in a report.
The average so far in 2009 is $942.58 an ounce.
Wheat futures in Chicago are up 9.7 percent this month, the
most since May, and corn gained 9.5 percent, the most since
March. Rain and thunderstorms today may further delay winter
wheat planting in the Midwest, and possibly damage cotton in the
Mississippi Delta area, DTN Inc. said in a forecast yesterday.
Cotton futures have climbed 7.4 percent this month, the
most since March.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Claudia Carpenter in London at
ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net; Stuart Wallace in London at
swallace6@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 30, 2009 08:48 EDT