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Commodities Head for Biggest Monthly Gain Since May on Recovery

By Claudia Carpenter

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Commodities headed for the biggest monthly gain since May as economic growth increased speculation that demand for food, energy and metals will rebound.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 raw materials is up 9.9 percent for October, led by lean hogs, gasoline and zinc.

China, the world’s largest buyer of commodities from copper to cotton, will sustain its economic rebound this quarter and growth is likely to top the government’s 8 percent target for 2009, the central bank said today. The U.S. economy, the world’s biggest, expanded for the first time in more than a year in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said yesterday.

“Many of the economies are coming out of recession and you have signs that metals demand is starting to accelerate,” said Michael Widmer, global head of metals research at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research in London. “What you really need is confirmation that the recovery is sustainable.”

The GSCI index was down 0.6 percent at 504.4 by 12:20 p.m. London time. The Commerce Department said consumer spending fell last month. Crude oil for December delivery fell 0.7 percent to $79.35 a barrel, trimming this month’s advance to 12 percent.

“It’s going to be a rocky road ahead for real demand growth,” said Andy Sommer, an analyst at Elektrizitaets- Gesellschaft in Dietikon, Switzerland.

The Bank of Japan said it will stop buying corporate debt at the end of the year as Australia and Norway raise interest rates amid signs of a global economic recovery after the first global recession since World War II.

Copper Erases Drop

Copper erased last month’s drop and is up 7 percent for October. The three-month contract fell 1.1 percent to $6,589 a ton on the London Metal Exchange. Aluminum fell 0.6 percent to $1,940 a ton, for a monthly gain of 2.7 percent. The price of aluminum is up 26 percent this year, the least among the six main industrial metals traded on the LME.

“Aluminum has the best value in relative terms,” said David Thurtell, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London. Inventories of the lightweight metal have “definitely peaked and are heading down quite significantly.”

Gold for immediate delivery fell 0.2 percent to $1,044.72 an ounce, narrowing this month’s rise to 3.7 percent. Prices have gained 19 percent this year as speculation about inflation and declines in the dollar spurred demand for the metal as a hedge. The dollar was little changed against the euro today, after falling 0.8 percent yesterday.

Gold Outlook

Gold will be higher “a month from now than we are now,” Dennis Gartman, economist and editor of the Gartman Letter, said in a television interview today. “I think we’ll be higher six months from now than we will be a month from now.”

The metal will average $1,025 an ounce next year, compared with a previous estimate of $925, ING Groep NV said in a report. The average so far in 2009 is $942.58 an ounce.

Wheat futures in Chicago are up 9.7 percent this month, the most since May, and corn gained 9.5 percent, the most since March. Rain and thunderstorms today may further delay winter wheat planting in the Midwest, and possibly damage cotton in the Mississippi Delta area, DTN Inc. said in a forecast yesterday.

Cotton futures have climbed 7.4 percent this month, the most since March.

To contact the reporters on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net; Stuart Wallace in London at swallace6@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 30, 2009 08:48 EDT


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