Gold Touches One-Week High as Investors Seek Dollar Alternative
By Claudia Carpenter and Pham-Duy Nguyen
Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Gold climbed to the highest in a week
as the dollar declined, boosting the appeal of the precious
metal as an alternative asset. Silver also gained.
The dollar fell against the euro, extending this year’s
slide to 5.2 percent. Gold, up 19 percent this year, has
outperformed U.S. stocks and bonds as the metal heads for a
ninth straight annual gain.
“Gold is benefiting from weakness in other assets,” said
Frank McGhee, the head dealer at Integrated Brokerage Services
LLC in Chicago. “You’re seeing a rotation into gold.”
Gold futures for December delivery jumped $13.60, or
1.3 percent, to $1,054 an ounce on the New York Mercantile
Exchange’s Comex division, the highest closing price for a most-
active contract since Oct. 23. Earlier, the metal reached
$1,063.40, also the highest since Oct. 23.
In London, gold for immediate delivery climbed $10, or
1 percent, to $1,055.40 an ounce at 7:15 p.m. local time.
Traders who follow charts and graphs bought the metal as
the spot price exceeded the 21-day moving average of $1,049.65,
said Tobias Merath, the head of commodity research at Credit
Suisse Group AG in Zurich.
“We could have a strong end of the year, and might even
break $1,100” by Dec. 31, Merath said. “The gold rally is
founded on three pillars, and the first is dollar weakness.”
Comparative Returns
Bullion also has gained because of lower yields from U.S.
government securities and equities, making gold more competitive
with assets such as interest-paying bonds, Merath said. He cited
“strong investment flows” as the metal’s third support.
Returns on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes have
fallen 5.5 percent this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.
indexes. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of U.S. shares is up
14 percent in 2009.
“If the current environment of slow economic recovery and
low short-term rates persists, gold should stand to benefit as
it competes with the stock market for fresh capital,” said Tom
Pawlicki, an MF Global Inc. analyst in Chicago.
The Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark U.S. lending
rate at zero to 0.25 percent for 11 months to revive growth.
China, Japan and other Asian nations are unlikely to sell
gold in coming years, according to the European Central Bank’s
main adviser on money-market operations.
“I anticipate these countries are very unlikely to appear
on the sell side of the market,” the ECB’s Paul Mercier said
today at a conference in Edinburgh. “If anything, we will see a
stabilization, if not an increase, in reserves of gold.”
Bullion Holdings
Central banks and other “official” entities such as the
International Monetary Fund held 26,350 metric tons of gold at
the end of last year, according to London-based research company
GFMS Ltd. By comparison, investment holdings in exchange-traded
funds were 1,222 tons, GFMS said in its 2009 Gold Survey report.
Investor assets in gold are rising as purchasers put money
into new products, Credit Suisse’s Merath said. Still, bullion
holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded
fund backed by the metal, slipped 0.1 percent to 1,103.52 tons
as of Oct. 30, according to the company’s Web site.
The end of seasonal buying in India and the Middle East may
cause gold to fall to $1,000 “over the short term,” Investec
Securities said today in a report.
The drop in SPDR assets from 1,109 tons three weeks earlier
is “significant” because “continuous inflows are needed to
support the metal,” Investec said.
Hedge funds and other large speculators trimmed net-long
positions, or bets on higher prices, in New York gold futures
for a second week as of Oct. 27, Commodity Futures Trading
Commission data on showed on Oct. 30.
Among other precious metals, silver futures for December
delivery advanced 18.5 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $16.44 an ounce
in New York. The most-active contract is up 46 percent in 2009.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Claudia Carpenter in London at
ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net;
Pham-Duy Nguyen in Seattle at
pnguyen@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 2, 2009 14:17 EST