Roubini Says Rogers’s $2,000 Gold ‘Utter Nonsense’ (Update1)
Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the economist who
predicted the global economic crisis, said a forecast by
investor Jim Rogers that gold will double to at least $2,000 an
ounce is “utter nonsense.”
There is no inflation or “near-depression” to drive gold
prices that high, Roubini said today at the Inside Commodities
Conference in New York. If a severe depression came to pass,
with investors buying canned goods and hiding out in log cabins,
“maybe you want some gold in that scenario,” Roubini said.
“Maybe it will reach $1,100 or so but $1,500 or $2,000 is
nonsense,” Roubini said. Gold rose to a record $1,098.50 today
in New York on speculation that central banks and investors will
purchase the metal to hedge against a declining dollar.
Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in
1999, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today that
Roubini is wrong about the threat of bubbles in gold and
emerging-markets stocks. The price of gold will double in the
next decade, he said.
In his New York speech, Roubini repeated his assertion that
asset prices have risen “too much, too soon, too fast.” He’s a
New York University professor and chairman of New York research
and advisory firm Roubini Global Economics.
The S&P-Goldman Sachs Commodity Spot Index is up 47 percent
so far this year. Oil has risen 80 percent and gold is up 23
percent. The U.S. economy grew 3.5 percent in the third quarter
after shrinking since the second quarter of 2008. Government
incentives that spurred consumers to buy homes and cars boosted
the recovery, the Commerce Department said on Oct. 29.
Justifying Prices
“It is very hard to justify oil going from $30 to above
$80 based only on the fundamentals of supply and demand,”
Roubini said. Prices are “in part” a bubble, Roubini said.
Position limits on oil trading, if they helped reduce
volatility, may be “beneficial” because the swings in oil
prices have been “destructive” to the global economy, Roubini
said.
Roubini predicted in 2006 the financial crisis that spurred
more than $1.6 trillion of credit losses and asset writedowns at
global financial companies.
The price of oil has gotten ahead of the economic recovery
and is forming another “speculative bubble,” said Stephen
Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. of Villanova,
Pennsylvania.
“I have no problem with the notion that $75 or $80 a
barrel oil is a fair market value in a healthy economy, but
we’ve got ahead of ourselves,” Schork said at the conference.
Oil rose 80 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at $80.40 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Asjylyn Loder in New York
aloder@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 4, 2009 16:11 EST