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AIG Unit Sales May Bring $115 Billion, Gallagher Says (Update3)

By Hugh Son

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the insurer that agreed last week to a federal takeover in exchange for an $85 billion loan, may get $115 billion by selling all its units, analysts at Credit Suisse Group AG said.

AIG, the largest U.S. insurer by assets, may need to sell more than half its businesses to repay the debt, analysts led by Thomas Gallagher said today in a note to investors. The New York- based insurer operates in more than 100 countries.

Chief Executive Officer Edward Liddy, who was appointed by the government last week, has said he intends to pay off the two- year loan early and that AIG will be ``nimbler'' after asset sales. The government agreed to extend the credit line in exchange for a 79.9 percent stake after the Federal Reserve said AIG's failure would disrupt financial markets.

``AIG has plenty of high quality businesses potentially for sale,'' Gallagher said. Competitors from the U.S., Canada, Europe, China and Australia may be interested in units, he said.

The insurer's overseas life insurance and U.S. retirement services units are the most ``coveted'' businesses, Gallagher said. AIG's foreign life insurance division could sell for more than $60 billion before taxes and its U.S. life and retirement companies may fetch $25.2 billion, he said. The aircraft leasing unit could sell for $3.4 billion before taxes, he said.

Shares Gain

AIG climbed 28 cents, or 5.9 percent, to $5 at 4:06 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange trading. The stock has more than doubled since Sept. 17 when a lawyer for former CEO Maurice ``Hank'' Greenberg said he may try to end government involvement in the insurer ``as prompt as possible.'' AIG sold for more than $72 a share in December 2006.

The insurer may face costs of about $33 billion related to bad investments and credit-default swaps, Gallagher said. The swaps, which back securities linked to subprime mortgages, led to about $25 billion in writedowns over three quarters.

AIG already borrowed $28 billion as of Sept. 17, the Federal Reserve said last week, even though full specifics of the accord with the government haven't been publicly released.

Liddy has told employees that he won't ``liquidate'' the company and may have a plan for assets sales by next week. AIG also may seek buyers for some of its $16 billion in global real estate holdings in more than 30 countries.

Real Estate

AIG listed ``real estate and other fixed assets, net of accumulated depreciation'' of $5.7 billion at the end of June, according to a quarterly filing with regulators. A financial supplement on the company's Web site lists $10.3 billion of real estate listed under ``total AIG other invested assets.''

Shareholders met yesterday in New York to discuss the possibility of raising enough money to derail the U.S. takeover. Greenberg and representatives for Eli Broad, Shelby Davis of Davis Selected Advisers LP and Bill Miller of Legg Mason Inc. attended the meeting, according to a person familiar with the situation. Greenberg said before the federal takeover he may lead investors in acquiring units.

``What I hope is, the Treasury and Fed are flexible and allow the people I represent to work with the company to pay off the facility and restore the private nature of this company,'' said Mickey Kantor, a lawyer representing shareholders, in a Bloomberg television interview today.

Kantor, a former U.S. trade representative and secretary of Commerce in the Clinton administration, said he will meet with AIG executives today for updates on the company's financial condition. He said he represents investors holding more than 30 percent of AIG stock before the government takeover. The group's banker is Roger Altman, CEO of Evercore Partners Inc. and a U.S. deputy Treasury secretary under Clinton.

Potential buyers of AIG businesses may have difficulty financing deals, ``with limited amounts of excess capital around the world,'' Gallagher said.

U.S. legislators including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senator John Kerry and Representative Robin Hayes have disclosed family holdings of AIG.

-- With reporting by Kathleen Hays in New York. Editor: Dan Kraut, Steve Geimann

To contact the reporter on this story: Hugh Son in New York at hson1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 23, 2008 16:59 EDT


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