Venezuela's Oil Sales to U.S. Drop as Chavez Sends More to Asia
July 12 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan oil shipments to the U.S.
fell 6 percent in the first four months of the year as President
Hugo Chavez followed through on his plan to find new markets for
his crude, according to data from the U.S. Energy Department.
State-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA has been sending more
tankers of oil and fuel to India and China, markets that are up
to seven times more distant than the U.S. customers that
traditionally take most of the country's exports. Venezuela was
the third-biggest OPEC producer last month, with output of about
2.6 million barrels.
``Two things are clear,'' said Roger Tissot, an oil analyst
with PFC Energy, a consulting firm in Washington. ``Venezuela
wants to reduce its dependence on the U.S., and it wants to
position itself in the world's fastest growing markets, such as
India and China.''
Chavez, 51, is shouldering higher transportation costs that
reduce the country's proceeds by up to $3 a barrel. Record global
oil prices help make up for lost revenue. The Venezuelan strategy
may make short-term supply disruptions more likely in the U.S.
and provide fodder for critics of the Chavez government who say
he is an unreliable oil provider.
The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee met last month
to discuss Venezuela's reliability as an oil supplier. A report
by the General Accountability Office, the non-profit research arm
of Congress, said a six-month loss of Venezuelan crude would
raise oil prices by $11 a barrel and reduce U.S. gross domestic
product by $23 billion.
Unreliable Partner
Senator John McCain, who ran against President George W.
Bush for the Republican presidential nomination in 2000, said
earlier this year that the U.S. needs to develop alternate energy
suppliers to avoid being held hostage by Chavez and other foreign
leaders who control oil supplies.
``We better understand the vulnerabilities that our economy
and our very lives have when we're dependent on Iranian mullahs,
and whackos in Venezuela,'' McCain said in a Jan. 22 interview on
Fox News Sunday.
Venezuela sent 178.2 million barrels of crude and petroleum
products to the U.S. for the first four months of 2006, down from
190.1 million barrels for the same period in 2005.
Venezuela is usually one of the top four suppliers of crude
oil and fuel to the U.S., according to Energy Department figures.
In some months the country sends more to the U.S. than Saudi
Arabia. The top four suppliers include Mexico and Canada, and the
order of the rankings change month by month.
Venezuela has signed new supply agreements with China,
India, Jamaica, Haiti, Paraguay, and Bolivia. The country's
output is not growing because of a lack of investment in new
production, so supplies to those countries come at the expense of
the exports to the U.S.
Oil to China
``In the past, all of our oil went north,'' Chavez said
during a June 23 press conference in Panama. ``We didn't send oil
to Argentina or Uruguay or Paraguay. Now, our oil is arriving at
the Rio de la Plata,'' which separates Argentina and Uruguay.
Venezuela is particularly targeting Asia. Petroleos de
Venezuela signed a long-term sales agreement with India in April
for 2 million barrels a month. The company is also in talks with
Reliance Industries Ltd., India's largest non-state oil refiner,
for additional shipments.
Sales to China have steadily risen. They totaled 14,000
barrels a day in 2004, and 80,000 barrels a day last year.
``By the end of this year, we should be sending 300,000
barrels a day of oil to China,'' Chavez said. China, which
exported crude oil as recently as the early 1990s, has become the
world's third-largest oil importer.
Petroleos de Venezuela said in May that it planned to buy 18
oil tankers from Chinese shipyards at a cost of $1.3 billion to
allow for increased shipments to Asia.
Worsening Relations
Since taking office in 1999, Chavez has repeatedly said the
U.S. is seeking to overthrow his government. U.S. leaders
including Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice have called Chavez a
destabilizing force. The U.S. cut off arms sales to the South
American country earlier this year.
The U.S. ``depends on us, not we on them,'' Chavez said in a
May 16 interview with the U.K.'s Channel 4. Chavez warned that
oil prices would soar to $100 a barrel if Venezuela chose to send
its oil to China, Europe and other countries instead of the U.S.
``It looks like Chavez is laying the groundwork for cutting
off oil to the U.S.,'' said James Williams, an analyst with WTRG
Energy Economics in London, Arkansas. ``And the only people who
will benefit from this are tanker owners.''
So far, Chavez doesn't have the ability to abruptly suspend
sales to the U.S. without damaging his own economy. Petroleos de
Venezuela would be unable to find buyers for most of the 2.1
million barrels of crude oil it exports today, said Juan Carlos
Sosa, president of Grupo Petroleo YV, a Caracas-based energy
consultant. Potential customers, including China, don't have
sufficient capacity to process the most common Venezuelan crude
oil grades, he said.
Heavy Crude
``Chinese refineries can't process Venezuelan crude, which
is heavy in metals and sulfur,'' said Sosa. ``Chinese refineries
are still geared toward lighter crudes,'' such as those produced
by Nigeria, the sixth-biggest producer in the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Building the refinery units needed to handle cheaper,
stickier, high-sulfur crude oil from Venezuela will take years,
Sosa said. In the U.S. some refineries have been upgraded
specifically to handle Venezuela's output.
Sales to Asia also make more sense if and when Venezuela
builds a pipeline to the Pacific across neighboring Colombia.
Such a pipeline, which would cost up to $4.7 billion, would shave
nearly 10 days off the trip to China, making crude sales more
economical.
Most supertankers can't fit through Panama Canal, forcing
them to go around South America to reach China after loading at
Caribbean ports.
``A pipeline to the Pacific is the only way selling oil to
China would make any economic sense,'' said Williams. ``Then
again, Chavez makes decisions time after time that make no sense
economically.''
To contact the reporter on this story:
Peter Wilson in Caracas at
pewilson@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: July 12, 2006 11:09 EDT